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Here we develop an approach to predict power grid weak points, and specifically to efficiently identify the most probable failure modes in static load distribution for a given power network. This approach is applied to two examples: Guam's…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-09-16 Michael Chertkov , Feng Pan , Mikhail G. Stepanov

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and winter storms have induced large-scale power outages in the U.S., resulting in tremendous economic and societal impacts. Accurately predicting power outage recovery and impact is key to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Chenghao Duan , Chuanyi Ji

This paper presents a novel data-driven approach for predicting the number of vegetation-related outages that occur in power distribution systems on a monthly basis. In order to develop an approach that is able to successfully fulfill this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-07 Milad Doostan , Reza Sohrabi , Badrul Chowdhury

We introduce a new microscopic model of the outages in transmission power grids. This model accounts for the automatic response of the grid to load fluctuations that take place on the scale of minutes, when the optimum power flow…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-03-17 René Pfitzner , Konstantin Turitsyn , Michael Chertkov

We propose and investigate a method of error detection and noise correction for bosonic linear networks using a method of unitary averaging. The proposed error averaging does not rely on ancillary photons or control and feed-forward…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-02-21 Ryan J. Marshman , Austin P. Lund , Peter P. Rohde , Timothy C. Ralph

The outage probability limit is a fundamental and achievable lower bound on the word error rate of coded communication systems affected by fading. This limit is mainly determined by two parameters: the diversity order and the coding gain.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-10-05 Dieter Duyck , Joseph Jean Boutros , Marc Moeneclaey

In this paper we study online change point detection in dynamic networks with time heterogeneous missing pattern within networks and dependence across the time course. The missingness probabilities, the entrywise sparsity of networks, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-24 Haotian Xu , Paromita Dubey , Yi Yu

It is estimated that over one-fourth of US households experienced a power outage in 2023, costing on average US $\$150$ Bn annually, with $87\%$ of outages caused by natural hazards. Indeed, numerous studies have examined the macroeconomic…

General Economics · Economics 2025-07-29 Matthew Sprintson , Edward Oughton

Detecting the anomaly behaviors such as network failure or Internet intentional attack in the large-scale Internet is a vital but challenging task. While numerous techniques have been developed based on Internet traffic in past years,…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2017-10-18 Jinfa Wang , Siyuan Jia , Hai Zhao , Jiuqiang Xu , Chuan Lin

Large-scale meteorological disasters are increasing around the world, and power outage damage by natural disaster such as typhoons and earthquakes is increasing in Japan as well. Corresponding to the need of reduction of economic losses due…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-06 Hideya Yoshiuchi , Haruna Takaaki , Swapnil Bembde

Outage probabilities and single-hop throughput are two important performance metrics that have been evaluated for certain specific types of wireless networks. However, there is a lack of comprehensive results for larger classes of networks,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Martin Haenggi

Expansion planning problems refer to the monetary and unit investment needed for energy production or storage. An inherent element in these problems is the element of stochasticity in various aspects, such as the generation output of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-27 S. Tsianikas , N. Yousefi , J. Zhou , D. W. Coit

Accurate topology information is critical for effective operation of power distribution networks. Line outages change the operational topology of a distribution network. Hence, outage detection is an important task. Power distribution…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-02-19 Ananth Narayan Samudrala , M. Hadi Amini , Soummya Kar , Rick S. Blum

In this paper, we present a novel data-driven approach to detect outage events in partially observable distribution systems by capturing the changes in smart meters' (SMs) data distribution. To achieve this, first, a breadth-first search…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-12 Yuxuan Yuan , Kaveh Dehghanpour , Fankun Bu , Zhaoyu Wang

Inadequate service availability is the top concern when employing Cloud computing. It has been recognized that zero downtime is impossible for large-scale Internet services. By learning from the previous and others' mistakes, nevertheless,…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2013-12-24 Zheng Li , Mingfei Liang , Liam O'Brien , He Zhang

We study online change point detection for multivariate inhomogeneous Poisson point process time series. This setting arises commonly in applications such as earthquake seismology, climate monitoring, and epidemic surveillance, yet remains…

Cloud services are omnipresent and critical cloud service failure is a fact of life. In order to retain customers and prevent revenue loss, it is important to provide high reliability guarantees for these services. One way to do this is by…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Shubham Agarwal , Sarthak Chakraborty , Shaddy Garg , Sumit Bisht , Chahat Jain , Ashritha Gonuguntla , Shiv Saini

When multiple outages occur in rapid succession, it is important to know quickly if the power transfer capability of different interconnections (or cut-sets) of the power network are limited. The algorithm developed in this paper identifies…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-10 Reetam Sen Biswas , Anamitra Pal , Trevor Werho , Vijay Vittal

Many traditional methods for identifying changepoints can struggle in the presence of outliers, or when the noise is heavy-tailed. Often they will infer additional changepoints in order to fit the outliers. To overcome this problem, data…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-12 Paul Fearnhead , Guillem Rigaill

Robust change-point detection for large-scale data streams has many real-world applications in industrial quality control, signal detection, biosurveillance. Unfortunately, it is highly non-trivial to develop efficient schemes due to three…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-18 Ruizhi Zhang , Yajun Mei , Jianjun Shi