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While many areas of machine learning have benefited from the increasing availability of large and varied datasets, the benefit to causal inference has been limited given the strong assumptions needed to ensure identifiability of causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-02 Wenshuo Guo , Serena Wang , Peng Ding , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Sadegh Shirani , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Ruoxuan Xiong , Mohsen Bayati

Randomized controlled trials (RCT's) allow researchers to estimate causal effects in an experimental sample with minimal identifying assumptions. However, to generalize or transport a causal effect from an RCT to a target population,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-08 Melody Huang

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the most effective approach to causal discovery, but in many circumstances it is impossible to conduct RCTs. Therefore observational studies based on passively observed data are widely accepted as an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-11 Jiuyong Li , Thuc Duy Le , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Zhou Jin , Bingyu Sun , Saisai Ma

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

Observational studies provide the only evidence on the effectiveness of interventions when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are impractical due to cost, ethical concerns, or time constraints. While many methodologies aim to draw causal…

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are regarded as the gold standard for estimating causal treatment effects on health outcomes. However, RCTs are not always feasible, because of time, budget or ethical constraints. Observational data such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Li Su , Roonak Rezvani , Shaun R. Seaman , Colin Starr , Isaac Gravestock

Causal inferences from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) may not pertain to a target population where some effect modifiers have a different distribution. Prior work studies generalizing the results of a trial to a target population with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-06 Ilker Demirel , Ahmed Alaa , Anthony Philippakis , David Sontag

This article investigates the model-robustness of fixed-effects models for analyzing a broad class of longitudinal cluster trials (CTs) such as stepped-wedge, parallel-with-baseline and crossover designs, encompassing both randomized (CRTs)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Kenneth M. Lee , Fan Li

Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference in observational studies. In recent years, use of negative controls to mitigate unmeasured confounding has gained increasing recognition and popularity. Negative controls have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-05 Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Jennifer C. Nelson , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Observational data is often readily available in large quantities, but can lead to biased causal effect estimates due to the presence of unobserved confounding. Recent works attempt to remove this bias by supplementing observational data…

Consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of some attribute of a text document; for example: what effect does writing a polite vs. rude email have on response time? To estimate a causal effect from observational data, we need to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-09 Lin Gui , Victor Veitch

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of multiple data sources for statistical analyses. We consider estimation of causal effects combining big main data with unmeasured confounders and smaller validation data with…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Shu Yang , Peng Ding

Recent work has made important contributions in the development of causally-interpretable meta-analysis. These methods transport treatment effects estimated in a collection of randomized trials to a target population of interest. Ideally,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling

Causal inference is vital for informed decision-making across fields such as biomedical research and social sciences. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for internal validity of inferences, whereas…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Ruoqi Yu , Bikram Karmakar , Jessica Vandeleest , Eleanor Bimla Schwarz

Methods that infer causal dependence from observational data are central to many areas of science, including medicine, economics, and the social sciences. A variety of theoretical properties of these methods have been proven, but empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-08 Amanda Gentzel , Purva Pruthi , David Jensen

Identifying patient subgroups with different treatment responses is an important task to inform medical recommendations, guidelines, and the design of future clinical trials. Existing approaches for treatment effect estimation primarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Vincent Jeanselme , Chang Ho Yoon , Fabian Falck , Brian Tom , Jessica Barrett

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for full sample analyses. This article extends these methods to estimate ATEs for discrete subgroups…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-16 Peter Z. Schochet

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

Bridging the gap between internal and external validity is crucial for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), favoured for their internal validity due to randomisation, often encounter challenges in…