Related papers: Publication Bias in Asset Pricing Research
Retractions serve as an indicator of failures in research integrity, yet most analyses focus on absolute counts rather than risk per paper. We use one of the largest open bibliographic databases to develop incidence metrics normalized by…
We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…
Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in…
We study a setting where Bayesian agents with a common prior have private information related to an event's outcome and sequentially make public announcements relating to their information. Our main result shows that when agents' private…
With the advent of Open Science, researchers have started to publish their research artefacts (i. e., data, software, and other products of the investigations) in order to allow others to reproduce their investigations. While this…
Percentiles are statistics pointing to the standing of a paper's citation impact relative to other papers in a given citation distribution. Percentile Ranks (PRs) often play an important role in evaluating the impact of scholars,…
This study conducted a comprehensive review of 71 papers published between 2000 and 2021 that employed various measures of investor sentiment to model returns. The analysis indicates that higher complexity of sentiment measures and models…
We develop a statistical framework for empirical Bayes learning from selectively reported confidence intervals, and apply it to provide context for interpreting results published in MEDLINE abstracts. We use a collection of 326,060 z-scores…
Failures of retraction are common in science. Why do these failures occur? And, relatedly, what makes findings harder or easier to retract? We use data from Microsoft Academic Graph, Retraction Watch, and Altmetric -- including retracted…
Quantitative research relies heavily on coding, and coding errors are relatively common even in published research. In this paper, we examine whether individuals are more or less likely to check their code depending on the results they…
This paper proposes a unified theoretical model to identify and test a comprehensive set of probabilistic updating biases within a single framework. The model achieves separate identification by focusing on the updating of belief…
In an article written five years ago [arXiv:0809.0522], we described a method for predicting which scientific papers will be highly cited in the future, even if they are currently not highly cited. Applying the method to real citation data…
Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accurate and unbiased. But what if, in reality, estimates are highly inaccurate and biased? Then the assumption that cost-benefit analysis is a…
The increasing ease of data capture and storage has led to a corresponding increase in the choice of data, the type of analysis performed on that data, and the complexity of the analysis performed. The main contribution of this paper is to…
The well-known Bayes theorem assumes that a posterior distribution is a probability distribution. However, the posterior distribution may no longer be a probability distribution if an improper prior distribution (non-probability measure)…
Bad statistics make research papers unreproducible and misleading. For the most part, the reasons for such misusage of numerical data have been found and addressed years ago by experts and proper practical solutions have been presented…
The Streetlight Effect represents an observation bias that occurs when individuals search for something only where it is easiest to look. Despite the significant development of Post-Publication Peer Review (PPPR) in recent years,…
Random effects meta-analysis is a widely applied methodology to synthetize research findings of studies in a specific scientific question. Besides estimating the mean effect, an important aim of the meta-analysis is to summarize the…
We describe a simple model of how a publication's citations change over time, based on pure-birth stochastic processes with a linear cumulative advantage effect. The model is applied to citation data from the Physical Review corpus provided…
Context: The retraction of research papers, for whatever reason, is a growing phenomenon. However, although retracted paper information is publicly available via publishers, it is somewhat distributed and inconsistent. Objective: The aim is…