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We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with pair-copula constructions, and nest…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-01-19 Damien Ackerer , Thibault Vatter

Parametric copula families have been known to flexibly capture various dependence patterns, e.g., either positive or negative dependence in either the lower or upper tails of bivariate distributions. In this paper, our objective is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Ruyi Pan , Luis E. Nieto-Barajas , Radu Craiu

This article presents factor copula approaches to model temporal dependency of non-Gaussian (continuous/discrete) longitudinal data. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas which explain the underlying dependence structure of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Subhajit Chattopadhyay

Longitudinal and survival sub-models are two building blocks for joint modelling of longitudinal and time to event data. Extensive research indicates separate analysis of these two processes could result in biased outputs due to their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-22 Zili Zhang , Christiana Charalambous , Peter Foster

The paper deals with a generalization of the risk model with stochastic premiums where dependence structures between claim sizes and inter-claim times as well as premium sizes and inter-premium times are modeled by…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-04 Olena Ragulina

This paper presents comparison results and establishes risk bounds for credit portfolios within classes of Bernoulli mixture models, assuming conditionally independent defaults that are stochastically increasing with a common risk factor.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-24 Jonathan Ansari , Eva Lütkebohmert

Copulas. We study the model risk of multivariate risk models in a comprehensive empirical study on Copula-GARCH models used for forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. To determine whether model risk inherent in the forecasting of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-24 Simon Fritzsch , Maike Timphus , Gregor Weiss

This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Natalie Neumeyer , Marek Omelka , Sarka Hudecova

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-08 Pavel Krupskii , Raphael Huser , Marc G. Genton

A framework for quantifying dependence between random vectors is introduced. With the notion of a collapsing function, random vectors are summarized by single random variables, called collapsed random variables in the framework. Using this…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-12 Marius Hofert , Wayne Oldford , Avinash Prasad , Mu Zhu

We develop factor copula models for analysing the dependence among mixed continuous and discrete responses. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas that involve both observed and latent variables, hence they allow tail, asymmetric…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-18 Sayed H. Kadhem , Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos

The class of index-mixed copulas is introduced and its properties are investigated. Index-mixed copulas are constructed from given base copulas and a random index vector, and show a rather remarkable degree of analytical tractability. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-10 Klaus Herrmann , Marius Hofert , Nahid Sadr

This paper deals with dependence across marginally exponentially distributed arrival times, such as default times in financial modeling or inter-failure times in reliability theory. We explore the relationship between dependence and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-01 Damiano Brigo , Kyriakos Chourdakis

In this paper, we address risk aggregation and capital allocation problems in the presence of dependence between risks. The dependence structure is defined by a mixed Bernstein copula which represents a generalization of the well-known…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-23 Fouad Marri , Khouzeima Moutanabbir

In this work, we consider extensions of the dual risk model with proportional gains by introducing a dependence structure between gain sizes and gain interrarrival times. Among others, we further consider the case where the proportional…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-23 Ioannis Dimitriou

In this paper, we obtain general representations for the joint distributions and copulas of arbitrary dependent random variables absolutely continuous with respect to the product of given one-dimensional marginal distributions. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Victor H. de la Peña , Rustam Ibragimov , Shaturgun Sharakhmetov

Analysing dependent risks is an important task for insurance companies. A dependency is reflected in the fact that information about one random variable provides information about the likely distribution of values of another random…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-22 Sen Hu , Adrian O'Hagan

Joint multivariate longitudinal and time-to-event data are gaining increasing attention in the biomedical sciences where subjects are followed over time to monitor the progress of a disease or medical condition. In the insurance context,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-12 Edward W. Frees , Catalina Bolancé , Montserrat Guillen , Emiliano Valdez

We revisit the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram\'er-von Mises goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests and propose a generalisation to identically distributed, but dependent univariate random variables. We show that the dependence leads to a reduction of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-09-06 Remy Chicheportiche , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Copulas are popular as models for multivariate dependence because they allow the marginal densities and the joint dependence to be modeled separately. However, they usually require that the transformation from uniform marginals to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-14 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Paolo Giordani , Xiuyan Mun , Robert Kohn , Mike Pitt