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Model averaging has demonstrated superior performance for ensemble forecasting in high-dimensional framework, its extension to incomplete datasets remains a critical but underexplored challenge. Moreover, identifying the parsimonious model…
Despite attractive theoretical guarantees and practical successes, Predictive Interval (PI) given by Conformal Prediction (CP) may not reflect the uncertainty of a given model. This limitation arises from CP methods using a constant…
In this paper, we propose a variable selection method for general nonparametric kernel-based estimation. The proposed method consists of two-stage estimation: (1) construct a consistent estimator of the target function, (2) approximate the…
We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…
We propose a new estimator for nonparametric binary choice models that does not impose a parametric structure on either the systematic function of covariates or the distribution of the error term. A key advantage of our approach is its…
Quantile regression (QR) is becoming increasingly popular due to its relevance in many scientific investigations. There is a great amount of work about linear and nonlinear QR models. Specifically, nonparametric estimation of the…
This paper proposes a new objective function and quantile regression (QR) algorithm for load forecasting (LF). In LF, the positive forecasting errors often have different economic impact from the negative forecasting errors. Considering…
The aim of this thesis is to extend the applications of the Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) algorithm to handle mixed-frequency and longitudinal data. To this end, standard statistical approaches have been exploited to build two novel…
We introduce a data-based approach to estimating key quantities which arise in the study of nonlinear control systems and random nonlinear dynamical systems. Our approach hinges on the observation that much of the existing linear theory may…
We propose kernel estimator for the distribution function of unobserved errors in autoregressive time series, based on residuals computed by estimating the autoregressive coefficients with the Yule-Walker method. Under mild assumptions, we…
The goal of nonparametric regression is to recover an underlying regression function from noisy observations, under the assumption that the regression function belongs to a pre-specified infinite dimensional function space. In the online…
The composite quantile regression (CQR) was introduced by Zou and Yuan [Ann. Statist. 36 (2008) 1108--1126] as a robust regression method for linear models with heavy-tailed errors while achieving high efficiency. Its penalized counterpart…
Quantile regression is a powerful statistical methodology that complements the classical linear regression by examining how covariates influence the location, scale, and shape of the entire response distribution and offering a global view…
We consider nonparametric prediction with multiple covariates, in particular categorical or functional predictors, or a mixture of both. The method proposed bases on an extension of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator where a kernel function is…
Conditional flow matching (CFM) has emerged as a powerful framework for training continuous normalizing flows due to its computational efficiency and effectiveness. However, standard CFM often produces paths that deviate significantly from…
Digital twins (DTs) rely on continuous synchronization between physical systems and their virtual counterparts through online parameter estimation under uncertainty. In many practical settings, however, this task is challenged by low…
Recent research has established sufficient conditions for finite mixture models to be identifiable from grouped observations. These conditions allow the mixture components to be nonparametric and have substantial (or even total) overlap.…
In many learning problems, the training and testing data follow different distributions and a particularly common situation is the \textit{covariate shift}. To correct for sampling biases, most approaches, including the popular kernel mean…
Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…
Quantile regression is an effective technique to quantify uncertainty, fit challenging underlying distributions, and often provide full probabilistic predictions through joint learnings over multiple quantile levels. A common drawback of…