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A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…
We consider an online stochastic game with risk-averse agents whose goal is to learn optimal decisions that minimize the risk of incurring significantly high costs. Specifically, we use the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure…
In safety-critical decision-making, the environment may evolve over time, and the learner adjusts its risk level accordingly. This work investigates risk-averse online optimization in dynamic environments with varying risk levels, employing…
We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…
Feature selection from a large number of covariates (aka features) in a regression analysis remains a challenge in data science, especially in terms of its potential of scaling to ever-enlarging data and finding a group of scientifically…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
This chapter describes how a posteriori error estimates targeting a user-defined quantity of interest, using the Dual Weighted Residual (DWR) technique, can be easily applied for biomechanical simulations in current engineering practice.…
The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the…
There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…
Random Fourier Features (RFF) is among the most popular and broadly applicable approaches for scaling up kernel methods. In essence, RFF allows the user to avoid costly computations on a large kernel matrix via a fast randomized…
The accelerated failure time (AFT) model is widely used to analyze relationships between variables in the presence of censored observations. However, this model relies on some assumptions such as the error distribution, which can lead to…
Managing insurance and financial risk when data is limited is a key task in the insurance industry. In this paper, we focus on cases where the risk distribution is modeled as a mixture with some components estimable to high precision or…
Risk measures are important key figures to measure the adequacy of the reserves of a company. The most common risk measures in practice are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Recently, quantum-based algorithms are…
For many real-world decision-making problems subject to uncertainty, it may be essential to deal with multiple and often conflicting objectives while taking the decision-makers' risk preferences into account. Conditional value-at-risk…
Evaluation of default correlation is an important task in credit risk analysis. In many practical situations, it concerns the joint defaults of several correlated firms, the task that is reducible to a first passage time (FPT) problem. This…
Risk forecasts drive trading constraints and capital allocation, yet losses are nonstationary and regime-dependent. This paper studies sequential one-sided VaR control via conformal calibration. I propose regime-weighted conformal risk…
We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall (also known as…
The current research on credit risk is primarily focused on modeling default probabilities. Recovery rates are often treated as an afterthought; they are modeled independently, in many cases they are even assumed constant. This is despite…
In this paper, we generalize the parametric delta-VaR method from portfolios with normally distributed risk factors to portfolios with elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the expected shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of such…
In this paper, we propose a neural network-based method for CVA computations of a portfolio of derivatives. In particular, we focus on portfolios consisting of a combination of derivatives, with and without true optionality, \textit{e.g.,}…