Related papers: Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism
Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…
The posterior distribution in a nonparametric inverse problem is shown to contract to the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the parameter, and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these…
Bayesian hypothesis testing is investigated when the prior probabilities of the hypotheses, taken as a random vector, are quantized. Nearest neighbor and centroid conditions are derived using mean Bayes risk error as a distortion measure…
A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…
One of the main concepts in quantum physics is a density matrix, which is a symmetric positive definite matrix of trace one. Finite probability distributions are a special case where the density matrix is restricted to be diagonal. Density…
In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…
Classification approaches based on the direct estimation and analysis of posterior probabilities will degrade if the original class priors begin to change. We prove that a unique (up to scale) solution is possible to recover the data…
Philosophers now seem to agree that frequentism is an untenable strategy to explain the meaning of probabilities. Nevertheless, I want to revive frequentism, and I will do so by grounding probabilities on typicality in the same way as the…
Classical probability theory supports probability measures, assigning a fixed positive real value to each event, these measures are far from satisfactory in formulating real-life occurrences. The main innovation of this paper is the…
In recent years, a range of measures of partial stochastic dominance have been introduced. These measures attempt to determine the extent to which one distribution is dominated by another. We assess these measures from intuitive, axiomatic,…
We defend a new theory of statistical evidence, which we call Robust Bayesianism (RB). We prove that, under widely accepted assumptions, RB entails the law of likelihood [Royall, 1997], the likelihood principle [Berger and Wolpert, 1988],…
We formalize the idea of probability distributions that lead to reliable predictions about some, but not all aspects of a domain. The resulting notion of `safety' provides a fresh perspective on foundational issues in statistics, providing…
We derive an analogue of the quantum total probability rule by constructing a probability theory based on paraconsistent logic. Bayesian probability theory is constructed upon classical logic and a desiderata, that is, a set of desired…
Linear models with a growing number of parameters have been widely used in modern statistics. One important problem about this kind of model is the variable selection issue. Bayesian approaches, which provide a stochastic search of…
We develop a representation of a decision maker's uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, this *e-posterior* allows for making predictions against arbitrary loss functions that may not be specified ex ante. Unlike the…
When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…
The general notion of a stochastic ordering is that one probability distribution is smaller than a second one if the second attaches more probability to higher values than the first. Motivated by recent work on barycentric maps on spaces of…
In this paper, we are concerned with attributing meaning to the results of a Bayesian analysis for a problem which is sufficiently complex that we are unable to assert a precise correspondence between the expert probabilistic judgements of…
We describe a framework for inducing probabilistic grammars from corpora of positive samples. First, samples are {\em incorporated} by adding ad-hoc rules to a working grammar; subsequently, elements of the model (such as states or…
Posterior predictive p-values are a common approach to Bayesian model-checking. This article analyses their frequency behaviour, that is, their distribution when the parameters and the data are drawn from the prior and the model…