Related papers: Maximum likelihood estimation for nonembeddable Ma…
We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…
In this paper, we develop a general theory for the estimation of the transition probabilities of reversible Markov chains using the maximum entropy principle. A broad range of physical models can be studied within this approach. We use…
This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
Labelled Markov chains (LMCs) are widely used in probabilistic verification, speech recognition, computational biology, and many other fields. Checking two LMCs for equivalence is a classical problem subject to extensive studies, while the…
Markov-switching models are powerful tools that allow capturing complex patterns from time series data driven by latent states. Recent work has highlighted the benefits of estimating components of these models nonparametrically, enhancing…
Chow and Liu (1968) studied the problem of learning a maximumlikelihood Markov tree. We generalize their work to more complexMarkov networks by considering the problem of learning a maximumlikelihood Markov network of bounded complexity. We…
This paper presents a detailed theoretical analysis of the three stochastic approximation proximal gradient algorithms proposed in our companion paper [49] to set regularization parameters by marginal maximum likelihood estimation. We prove…
Verification of infinite-state Markov chains is still a challenge despite several fruitful numerical or statistical approaches. For decisive Markov chains, there is a simple numerical algorithm that frames the reachability probability as…
The maximum likelihood estimation of the left-truncated log-logistic distribution with a given truncation point is analyzed in detail from both mathematical and numerical perspectives. These maximum likelihood equations often do not possess…
We consider the problem of link prediction, based on partial observation of a large network, and on side information associated to its vertices. The generative model is formulated as a matrix logistic regression. The performance of the…
Labeled continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) describe processes subject to random timing and partial observability. In applications such as runtime monitoring, we must incorporate past observations. The timing of these observations matters…
The pattern maximum likelihood (PML) estimate, introduced by Orlitsky et al., is an estimate of the multiset of probabilities in an unknown probability distribution $\mathbf{p}$, the estimate being obtained from $n$ i.i.d. samples drawn…
Solving fastest mixing Markov chain problem (i.e. finding transition probabilities on the edges to minimize the second largest eigenvalue modulus of the transition probability matrix) over networks with different topologies is one of the…
This paper considers stochastic-constrained stochastic optimization where the stochastic constraint is to satisfy that the expectation of a random function is below a certain threshold. In particular, we study the setting where data samples…
The likelihood function of a finite mixture model is a non-convex function with multiple local maxima and commonly used iterative algorithms such as EM will converge to different solutions depending on initial conditions. In this paper we…
Modeling the time evolution of discrete sets of items (e.g., genetic mutations) is a fundamental problem in many biomedical applications. We approach this problem through the lens of continuous-time Markov chains, and show that the…
The problem of finding the optimal set of source nodes in a diffusion network that maximizes the spread of information, influence, and diseases in a limited amount of time depends dramatically on the underlying temporal dynamics of the…
Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is a general method for estimating parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. Each iteration of TMLE involves fitting a parametric submodel that targets the parameter of interest. We…
The spectral gap $\gamma$ of an ergodic and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to a fixed…