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In this paper, we propose a general framework for combining evidence of varying quality to estimate underlying binary latent variables in the presence of restrictions imposed to respect the scientific context. The resulting algorithms…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-28 Zhenke Wu , Livia Casciola-Rosen , Antony Rosen , Scott L. Zeger

In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for statistical model checking (SMC) of probabilistic hyperproperties specified in the logic HyperPCTL* on discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs). While SMC of HyperPCTL* using sequential probability…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Spandan Das , Pavithra Prabhakar

The cost of simulator evaluations is a key practical bottleneck for Simulation Based Inference (SBI). In hierarchical settings with shared global parameters and exchangeable site-level parameters and observations, this structure can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Giovanni Charles , Cosmo Santoni , Seth Flaxman , Elizaveta Semenova

Tens of thousands of simultaneous hypothesis tests are routinely performed in genomic studies to identify differentially expressed genes. However, due to unmeasured confounders, many standard statistical approaches may be substantially…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Jin-Hong Du , Larry Wasserman , Kathryn Roeder

We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-29 Charles Gadd , Sara Wade , Akeel Shah , Dimitris Grammatopoulos

Motivation: Recent advances in technology for brain imaging and high-throughput genotyping have motivated studies examining the influence of genetic variation on brain structure. Wang et al. (Bioinformatics, 2012) have developed an approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-18 Keelin Greenlaw , Elena Szefer , Jinko Graham , Mary Lesperance , Farouk S. Nathoo

Models implicitly defined through a random simulator of a process have become widely used in scientific and industrial applications in recent years. However, simulation-based inference methods for such implicit models, like approximate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Joonha Park

A significant barrier to the widespread adoption of Bayesian inference is the specification of prior distributions and likelihoods, which often requires specialized statistical expertise. This paper investigates the feasibility of using a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-13 Yongchao Huang

The objective of this work is to quantify the uncertainty in probability of failure estimates resulting from incomplete knowledge of the probability distributions for the input random variables. We propose a framework that couples the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Dimitris G. Giovanis , Michael Shields

To facilitate the development of new models to bridge the gap between machine and human social intelligence, the recently proposed Baby Intuitions Benchmark (arXiv:2102.11938) provides a suite of tasks designed to evaluate commonsense…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-08 Tan Zhi-Xuan , Nishad Gothoskar , Falk Pollok , Dan Gutfreund , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Vikash K. Mansinghka

Bayesian inference involves the specification of a statistical model by a statistician or practitioner, with careful thought about what each parameter represents. This results in particularly interpretable models which can be used to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-07 Jonathan Law , Darren Wilkinson

Before adopting a new large language model (LLM) architecture, it is critical to understand vulnerabilities accurately. Existing evaluations can be difficult to trust, often drawing conclusions from LLMs that are not meaningfully…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Mary Llewellyn , Annie Gray , Josh Collyer , Michael Harries

Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Max Goplerud

Some of the issues that make sampling parameter spaces of various beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenarios computationally expensive are the high dimensionality of the input parameter space, complex likelihoods, and stringent experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Atrideb Chatterjee , Arghya Choudhury , Sourav Mitra , Arpita Mondal , Subhadeep Mondal

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables cosmological parameter estimation when closed-form likelihoods or models are unavailable. However, SBI relies on machine learning for neural compression and density estimation. This requires large…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-29 Alex A. Saoulis , Davide Piras , Niall Jeffrey , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Ana M. G. Ferreira , Benjamin Joachimi

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Yibo Yang , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Paris Perdikaris

Mathematical models support inference and forecasting in ecology and epidemiology, but results depend on the estimation framework. We compare Bayesian and Frequentist approaches across three biological models using four datasets:…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-31 Mohammed A. Y. Mohammed , Hamed Karami , Gerardo Chowell

Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed. Simulation-based inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Linnea M Wolniewicz , Peter Sadowski , Claudio Corti

A central characteristic of Bayesian statistics is the ability to consistently incorporate prior knowledge into various modeling processes. In this paper, we focus on translating domain expert knowledge into corresponding prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-16 Florence Bockting , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami