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Empirical researchers are often interested in not only whether a treatment affects an outcome of interest, but also how the treatment effect arises. Causal mediation analysis provides a formal framework to identify causal mechanisms through…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-01 Bora Kim

Automated damage detection is an integral component of each structural health monitoring (SHM) system. Typically, measurements from various sensors are collected and reduced to damage-sensitive features, and diagnostic values are generated…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-27 Lizzie Neumann , Philipp Wittenberg , Alexander Mendler , Jan Gertheiss

We propose a novel method for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on the fused lasso. By first ordering samples based on the propensity or prognostic score, we match units from the treatment and control groups. We then run the…

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

Standard instrumental variables (IV) methods identify a Local Average Treatment Effect under monotonicity, which rules out defiers. In many empirical environments, however, distinct instruments may induce heterogeneous and even opposing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-16 Johann Caro-Burnett

One fundamental statistical question for research areas such as precision medicine and health disparity is about discovering effect modification of treatment or exposure by observed covariates. We propose a semiparametric framework for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 Muxuan Liang , Menggang Yu

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Difference-in-differences (DID) is one of the most popular tools used to evaluate causal effects of policy interventions. This paper extends the DID methodology to accommodate interval outcomes, which are often encountered in empirical…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-10 Daisuke Kurisu , Yuta Okamoto , Taisuke Otsu

We study categorical instrumental variable (IV) models with instrument, treatment, and outcome taking finitely many values. We derive a simple closed-form characterization of the set of joint distributions of potential outcomes that are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Yilin Song , F. Richard Guo , K. C. Gary Chan , Thomas S. Richardson

An important concern in an observational study is whether or not there is unmeasured confounding, i.e., unmeasured ways in which the treatment and control groups differ before treatment that affect the outcome. We develop a test of whether…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-26 Zijian Guo , Jing Cheng , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Instrumental variables have been widely used to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. Existing confidence intervals for causal effects based on instrumental variables assume that all of the putative instrumental variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-14 Hyunseung Kang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

In this paper, we study difference-in-differences identification and estimation strategies when the parallel trends assumption holds after conditioning on covariates. We consider empirically relevant settings where the covariates can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-11 Carolina Caetano , Brantly Callaway

Evaluating the value of new clinical treatment rules based on patient characteristics is important but often complicated by hidden confounding factors in observational studies. Standard methods for estimating the average patient outcome if…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Johannes Hruza , Erin Gabriel , Arvid Sjölander , Samir Bhatt , Michael Sachs

We establish the inferential properties of the mean-difference estimator for the average treatment effect in randomized experiments where each unit in a population is randomized to one of two treatments and then units within treatment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-19 Zach Branson , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Difference-in-differences is a common method for estimating treatment effects, and the parallel trends condition is its main identifying assumption: the trend in mean untreated outcomes is independent of the observed treatment status. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-09 Philip Marx , Elie Tamer , Xun Tang

We propose an approach to estimate the effect of multiple simultaneous interventions in the presence of hidden confounders. To overcome the problem of hidden confounding, we consider the setting where we have access to not only the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-17 Sorawit Saengkyongam , Ricardo Silva

This paper investigates how certain relationship between observed and counterfactual distributions serves as an identifying condition for treatment effects when the treatment is endogenous, and shows that this condition holds in a range of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 Sukjin Han , Haiqing Xu

This paper develops a general framework for identifying causal effects in settings with spillovers, where both outcomes and endogenous treatment decisions are influenced by peers within a known group. It introduces the generalized local…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-01 Huan Wu

We develop a new approach for identifying and estimating average causal effects in panel data under a linear factor model with unmeasured confounders. Compared to other methods tackling factor models such as synthetic controls and matrix…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao

A key challenge in environmental health research is unmeasured spatial confounding, driven by unobserved spatially structured variables that influence both treatment and outcome. A common approach is to fit a spatial regression that models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Sophie M. Woodward , Francesca Dominici , Jose R. Zubizarreta