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In this work, we consider the problem of estimating a behaviour policy for use in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) when the true behaviour policy is unknown. Via a series of empirical studies, we demonstrate how accurate OPE is strongly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-11 Aniruddh Raghu , Omer Gottesman , Yao Liu , Matthieu Komorowski , Aldo Faisal , Finale Doshi-Velez , Emma Brunskill

We consider the estimation of the policy gradient in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) with a special class of structured policies that are finite-state controllers. We show that the gradient estimation can be done in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Huizhen Yu

In many engineering systems, proper predictive maintenance and operational control are essential to increase efficiency and reliability while reducing maintenance costs. However, one of the major challenges is that many sensors are used for…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-09 Boyang Xu , Yunyi Kang , Xinyu Zhao , Hao Yan , Feng Ju

Evaluating a policy by deploying it in the real world can be risky and costly. Off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) algorithms use historical data collected from running a previous policy to evaluate a new policy, which provides a means for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-12-07 Zhaohan Daniel Guo , Philip S. Thomas , Emma Brunskill

Model-based reinforcement learning is attractive for sequential decision-making because it explicitly estimates reward and transition models and then supports planning through simulated rollouts. In offline settings with hidden confounding,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Nishanth Venkatesh , Andreas A. Malikopoulos

Planning under uncertainty is critical to robotics. The Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) is a mathematical framework for such planning problems. It is powerful due to its careful quantification of the non-deterministic…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-07-19 Hanna Kurniawati

We consider the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem in contextual bandits, where the goal is to estimate the value of a target policy using the data collected by a logging policy. Most popular approaches to the OPE are variants of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-20 Sutanoy Dasgupta , Yabo Niu , Kishan Panaganti , Dileep Kalathil , Debdeep Pati , Bani Mallick

We consider the problem of finding the best memoryless stochastic policy for an infinite-horizon partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) with finite state and action spaces with respect to either the discounted or mean reward…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-02 Johannes Müller , Guido Montúfar

This paper proposes an observer-based framework for solving Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) when an accurate model is not available. We first propose to use a Moving Horizon Estimation-Model Predictive Control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-23 Hossein Nejatbakhsh Esfahani , Arash Bahari Kordabad , Sebastien Gros

In many real-world decision problems there is partially observed, hidden or latent information that remains fixed throughout an interaction. Such decision problems can be modeled as Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs), where a latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Jeongyeol Kwon , Shie Mannor , Constantine Caramanis , Yonathan Efroni

Offline policy evaluation (OPE) is considered a fundamental and challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL). This paper focuses on the value estimation of a target policy based on pre-collected data generated from a possibly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Jiayi Wang , Zhengling Qi , Raymond K. W. Wong

Reinforcement Learning aims at identifying and evaluating efficient control policies from data. In many real-world applications, the learner is not allowed to experiment and cannot gather data in an online manner (this is the case when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Daniele Foffano , Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere

In this paper, we consider the problem of controlling a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) in order to actively estimate its state trajectory over a fixed horizon with minimal uncertainty. We pose a novel active smoothing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-06 Timothy L. Molloy , Girish N. Nair

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a general mathematical model for sequential decision-making in stochastic environments under state uncertainty. POMDPs are often solved \textit{online}, which enables the algorithm…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Yunuo Zhang , Baiting Luo , Ayan Mukhopadhyay , Abhishek Dubey

We consider a class of sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty that can encompass various types of supervised learning concepts. These problems have a completely observed state process and a partially observed modulation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-24 R. Reid Bishop , Chelsea C. White

We study the novel problem of future off-policy evaluation (F-OPE) and learning (F-OPL) for estimating and optimizing the future value of policies in non-stationary environments, where distributions vary over time. In e-commerce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Tatsuhiro Shimizu , Kazuki Kawamura , Takanori Muroi , Yusuke Narita , Kei Tateno , Takuma Udagawa , Yuta Saito

Memoryless and finite-memory policies offer a practical alternative for solving partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), as they operate directly in the output space rather than in the high-dimensional belief space. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Roy van Zuijlen , Duarte Antunes

In this article we propose a qualitative (ordinal) counterpart for the Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes model (POMDP) in which the uncertainty, as well as the preferences of the agent, are modeled by possibility distributions.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Regis Sabbadin

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is the method that attempts to estimate the performance of decision making policies using historical data generated by different policies without conducting costly online A/B tests. Accurate OPE is essential in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Yuta Saito , Takuma Udagawa , Kei Tateno

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) holds the promise of being able to leverage large, offline datasets for both evaluating and selecting complex policies for decision making. The ability to learn offline is particularly important in many…