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Neural networks are often overconfident about their predictions, which undermines their reliability and trustworthiness. In this work, we present a novel technique, named Error-Driven Uncertainty Aware Training (EUAT), which aims to enhance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

Class imbalance in supervised classification often degrades model performance by biasing predictions toward the majority class, particularly in critical applications such as medical diagnosis and fraud detection. Traditional oversampling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-16 Suman Cha , Hyunjoong Kim

Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Runa Eschenhagen , Erik Daxberger , Philipp Hennig , Agustinus Kristiadi

Handling missing data is a central challenge in data-driven analysis. Modern imputation methods not only aim for accurate reconstruction but also differ in how they represent and quantify uncertainty. Yet, the reliability and calibration of…

Databases · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Zarin Tahia Hossain , Mostafa Milani

Many important computer vision applications are naturally formulated as regression problems. Within medical imaging, accurate regression models have the potential to automate various tasks, helping to lower costs and improve patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Data mixing--the strategic reweighting of training domains--is a critical component in training robust machine learning models. This problem is naturally formulated as a bilevel optimization task, where the outer loop optimizes domain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Rudrajit Das , Neel Patel , Meisam Razaviyayn , Vahab Mirrokni

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning (ML) regression tasks is becoming the focus of many studies in materials and chemical science. It is now well understood that average calibration is insufficient, and most studies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Pascal Pernot

In recent years, mixup regularization has gained popularity as an effective way to improve the generalization performance of deep learning models by training on convex combinations of training data. While many mixup variants have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yousef El-Laham , Niccolò Dalmasso , Svitlana Vyetrenko , Vamsi K. Potluru , Manuela Veloso

Deep neural networks tend to memorize noisy labels, severely degrading their generalization performance. Although Mixup has demonstrated effectiveness in improving generalization and robustness, existing Mixup-based methods typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Qiuhao Liu , Ling Li , Yao Lu , Qi Xuan , Zhaowei Zhu , Jiaheng Wei

In stochastic simulation, input uncertainty refers to the output variability arising from the statistical noise in specifying the input models. This uncertainty can be measured by a variance contribution in the output, which, in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-20 Henry Lam , Huajie Qian

Reliable uncertainty calibration is essential for safely deploying deep neural networks in high-stakes applications. Deep neural networks are known to exhibit systematic overconfidence, especially under distribution shifts. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Achim Hekler , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Dropout as regularization has been used extensively to prevent overfitting for training neural networks. During training, units and their connections are randomly dropped, which could be considered as sampling many different submodels from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-28 Zhaoyuan Yang , Arpit Jain

This paper is concerned with learning of mixture regression models for individuals that are measured repeatedly. The adjective "unsupervised" implies that the number of mixing components is unknown and has to be determined, ideally by data…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-09 Peirong Xu , Heng Peng , Tao Huang

Unsupervised Multiplex Graph Learning (UMGL) aims to learn node representations on various edge types without manual labeling. However, existing research overlooks a key factor: the reliability of the graph structure. Real-world data often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Zhixiang Shen , Shuo Wang , Zhao Kang

Semi-supervised learning is attracting blooming attention, due to its success in combining unlabeled data. To mitigate potentially incorrect pseudo labels, recent frameworks mostly set a fixed confidence threshold to discard uncertain…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Lihe Yang , Zhen Zhao , Lei Qi , Yu Qiao , Yinghuan Shi , Hengshuang Zhao

MixUp is a recently proposed data-augmentation scheme, which linearly interpolates a random pair of training examples and correspondingly the one-hot representations of their labels. Training deep neural networks with such additional data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-26 Hongyu Guo , Yongyi Mao , Richong Zhang

Reward models are central to aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Yet most approaches rely on pointwise reward estimates that overlook the epistemic uncertainty in reward models arising from limited human feedback.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Daniel Yang , Samuel Stante , Florian Redhardt , Lena Libon , Parnian Kassraie , Ido Hakimi , Barna Pásztor , Andreas Krause

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Nicolas Dewolf

Ensembling fine-tuned models initialized from powerful pre-trained weights is a common strategy to improve robustness under distribution shifts, but it comes with substantial computational costs due to the need to train and store multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Masih Aminbeidokhti , Heitor Rapela Medeiros , Srikanth Muralidharan , Eric Granger , Marco Pedersoli

Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used for manufacturing decisions, yet are typically applied via deterministic thresholding of finite-sample estimates, ignoring uncertainty and leading to unstable outcomes near the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-16 Fei Jiang , Lei Yang