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Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Uncertainty quantification is vital for decision-making and risk assessment in machine learning. Mean-variance regression models, which predict both a mean and residual noise for each data point, provide a simple approach to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Eliot Wong-Toi , Alex Boyd , Vincent Fortuin , Stephan Mandt

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Qingyang Wu , He Li , Lexin Li , Zhou Yu

Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Florian Wenzel , Jasper Snoek , Dustin Tran , Rodolphe Jenatton

Machine unlearning, as a post-hoc processing technique, has gained widespread adoption in addressing challenges like bias mitigation and robustness enhancement, colloquially, machine unlearning for fairness and robustness. However, existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Xinbao Qiao , Ningning Ding , Yushi Cheng , Meng Zhang

Matching a nonprobability sample to a probability sample is one strategy both for selecting the nonprobability units and for weighting them. This approach has been employed in the past to select subsamples of persons from a large panel of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Zhan Liu , Richard Valliant

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates $x$) of training and testing samples $\mathrm{p}_\text{tr}(x)$ and $\mathrm{p}_\text{te}(x)$ are different but the label…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-12 José I. Segovia-Martín , Santiago Mazuelas , Anqi Liu

Unsupervised domain transfer is the task of transferring or translating samples from a source distribution to a different target distribution. Current solutions unsupervised domain transfer often operate on data on which the modes of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-31 Mikołaj Bińkowski , R Devon Hjelm , Aaron Courville

Sampling-based methods, e.g., Deep Ensembles and Bayesian Neural Nets have become promising approaches to improve the quality of uncertainty estimation and robust generalization. However, they suffer from a large model size and high latency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Ha Manh Bui , Anqi Liu

Data imbalance is ubiquitous when applying machine learning to real-world problems, particularly regression problems. If training data are imbalanced, the learning is dominated by the densely covered regions of the target distribution and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yuchang Jiang , Vivien Sainte Fare Garnot , Konrad Schindler , Jan Dirk Wegner

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) aims to transfer knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain. Owing to privacy concerns and heavy data transmission, source-free UDA, exploiting the pre-trained source models…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Yuhe Ding , Lijun Sheng , Jian Liang , Aihua Zheng , Ran He

Researchers have proposed several approaches for neural network (NN) based uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, most of the approaches are developed considering strong assumptions. Uncertainty quantification algorithms often perform…

Bias in datasets can be very detrimental for appropriate statistical estimation. In response to this problem, importance weighting methods have been developed to match any biased distribution to its corresponding target unbiased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-12 Antoine de Mathelin , Francois Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis

In the analysis of survey data, sampling weights are needed for consistent estimation of the population. However, the original inverse probability weights from the survey sample design are typically modified to account for non-response, to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-19 Matthew R. Williams , Terrance D. Savitsky

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-25 Zoe van Havre , Nicole White , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

In robust optimization, the uncertainty set is used to model all possible outcomes of uncertain parameters. In the classic setting, one assumes that this set is provided by the decision maker based on the data available to her. Only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-23 Trivikram Dokka , Marc Goerigk , Rahul Roy

Survival analysis, which estimates the probability of event occurrence over time from censored data, is fundamental in numerous real-world applications, particularly in high-stakes domains such as healthcare and risk assessment. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Yu Liu , Weiyao Tao , Tong Xia , Simon Knight , Tingting Zhu

Reliable confidence estimation for deep neural classifiers is a challenging yet fundamental requirement in high-stakes applications. Unfortunately, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their erroneous predictions. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-31 Fei Zhu , Zhen Cheng , Xu-Yao Zhang , Cheng-Lin Liu

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

With the rise of neural networks in various domains, multi-task learning (MTL) gained significant relevance. A key challenge in MTL is balancing individual task losses during neural network training to improve performance and efficiency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-16 Lukas Kirchdorfer , Cathrin Elich , Simon Kutsche , Heiner Stuckenschmidt , Lukas Schott , Jan M. Köhler