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This paper provides a comparative study of modern uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. To greatly enhance real-time performance, both differential algebra (DA) and a directional differential algebra (DDA) approach are employed. This can…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Ethan R. Burnett , Spencer Boone

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Minsuk Shin , Young Lee , Jun S. Liu

Existing work in scientific machine learning (SciML) has shown that data-driven learning of solution operators can provide a fast approximate alternative to classical numerical partial differential equation (PDE) solvers. Of these, Neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 S. Chandra Mouli , Danielle C. Maddix , Shima Alizadeh , Gaurav Gupta , Andrew Stuart , Michael W. Mahoney , Yuyang Wang

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

Using a cyclotron based model problem, we demonstrate for the first time the applicability and usefulness of a uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach in order to construct surrogate models for quantities such as emittance, energy spread…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2018-12-13 Andreas Adelmann

Simulating complex physical systems is crucial for understanding and predicting phenomena across diverse fields, such as fluid dynamics and heat transfer, as well as plasma physics and structural mechanics. Traditional approaches rely on…

Uncertainty quantification is critical for deploying deep neural networks (DNNs) in real-world applications. An Auxiliary Uncertainty Estimator (AuxUE) is one of the most effective means to estimate the uncertainty of the main task…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Xuanlong Yu , Gianni Franchi , Jindong Gu , Emanuel Aldea

High-dimensional tensor data often exhibit strong temporal correlations that appear as low-dimensional structures in the frequency domain. While the low-tubal-rank tensor model effectively captures these spectral features, making it…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Jiuqian Shang , Jingyang Li , Yang Chen

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Devin M. McAfee , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental yet unsolved problem for deep learning. The Bayesian framework provides a principled way of uncertainty estimation but is often not scalable to modern deep neural nets (DNNs) that have a large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-25 Lingkai Kong , Jimeng Sun , Chao Zhang

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Hao Sun , Boris van Breugel , Jonathan Crabbe , Nabeel Seedat , Mihaela van der Schaar

We describe a computational framework linking Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods for continuum problems depending on random parameters with Equation-Free (EF) methods for performing continuum deterministic numerics by acting directly…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Yu Zou , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

System Identification (SysID) is crucial for modeling and understanding dynamical systems using experimental data. While traditional SysID methods emphasize linear models, their inability to fully capture nonlinear dynamics has driven the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Mehmet Ali Ferah , Tufan Kumbasar

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

AI Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has the potential to improve human decision-making beyond AI predictions alone by providing additional probabilistic information to users. The majority of past research on AI and human decision-making has…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Laura R. Marusich , Jonathan Z. Bakdash , Yan Zhou , Murat Kantarcioglu

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Lorena Qendro , Jagmohan Chauhan , Alberto Gil C. P. Ramos , Cecilia Mascolo

Learning operators from data is central to scientific machine learning. While DeepONets are widely used for their ability to handle complex domains, they require fixed sensor numbers and locations, lack mechanisms for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Lei Ma , Ling Guo , Hao Wu , Tao Zhou

Deep learning models for semantic segmentation are prone to poor performance in real-world applications due to the highly challenging nature of the task. Model uncertainty quantification (UQ) is one way to address this issue of lack of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-04 Rishabh Singh , Jose C. Principe