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Forecasting faithful trajectories of multivariate time series from practical scopes is essential for reasonable decision-making. Recent methods majorly tailor generative conditional diffusion models to estimate the target temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Siyang Li , Yize Chen , Hui Xiong

We introduce Deep Variational Bayes Filters (DVBF), a new method for unsupervised learning and identification of latent Markovian state space models. Leveraging recent advances in Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes, DVBF can overcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-06 Maximilian Karl , Maximilian Soelch , Justin Bayer , Patrick van der Smagt

As a highly expressive generative model, diffusion models have demonstrated exceptional success across various domains, including image generation, natural language processing, and combinatorial optimization. However, as data distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Myunsoo Kim , Donghyeon Ki , Seong-Woong Shim , Byung-Jun Lee

In this work, we introduce a generalized framework for multiscale state-space modeling that incorporates nested nonlinear dynamics, with a specific focus on Bayesian learning under switching regimes. Our framework captures the complex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Nayely Vélez-Cruz , Manfred D. Laubichler

We consider the problem of modeling the dynamics of continuous spatial-temporal processes represented by irregular samples through both space and time. Such processes occur in sensor networks, citizen science, multi-robot systems, and many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Erich Merrill , Stefan Lee , Li Fuxin , Thomas G. Dietterich , Alan Fern

Accurate modeling of robot dynamics is essential for model-based control, yet remains challenging under distributional shifts and real-time constraints. In this work, we formulate system identification as an in-context meta-learning problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Angelo Moroncelli , Matteo Rufolo , Gunes Cagin Aydin , Asad Ali Shahid , Loris Roveda

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Lifeng Shen , James Kwok

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-05 Rohan Sinha , James Harrison , Spencer M. Richards , Marco Pavone

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Gary Koop , Dimitris Korobilis

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of various models for long-term multivariate time-series forecasting (LMTF), many of which have shown promising results. Generally, the focus has been on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Shiyi Qi , Zenglin Xu , Yiduo Li , Liangjian Wen , Qingsong Wen , Qifan Wang , Yuan Qi

We introduce a performance-driven framework for constructing strictly causal forward-oriented observables in strongly non-stationary time series. The method combines a robustly normalized composite of heterogeneous indicators with a…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-17 Lucas A. Souza

Deep learning utilizing transformers has recently achieved a lot of success in many vital areas such as natural language processing, computer vision, anomaly detection, and recommendation systems, among many others. Among several merits of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Lena Sasal , Tanujit Chakraborty , Abdenour Hadid

Learning complex trajectories from demonstrations in robotic tasks has been effectively addressed through the utilization of Dynamical Systems (DS). State-of-the-art DS learning methods ensure stability of the generated trajectories;…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Andreas Sochopoulos , Michael Gienger , Sethu Vijayakumar

Modelling the dynamics of dense granular media is a long standing challenge and essential to many natural phenomena and technological applications. Here, we trace back puzzling experimental observation of detailed-balanced steady states to…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2024-10-29 Clara C. Wanjura , Amelie Mayländer , Othmar Marti , Raphael Blumenfeld

Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Jie Yang , Yifan Hu , Yuante Li , Kexin Zhang , Kaize Ding , Philip S. Yu

Time series forecasting is crucial for many fields, such as disaster warning, weather prediction, and energy consumption. The Transformer-based models are considered to have revolutionized the field of sequence modeling. However, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Junlong Tong , Liping Xie , Wankou Yang , Kanjian Zhang

Inverse problems aim to determine parameters from observations, a crucial task in engineering and science. Lately, generative models, especially diffusion models, have gained popularity in this area for their ability to produce realistic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Gabriel della Maggiora , Luis Alberto Croquevielle , Nikita Deshpande , Harry Horsley , Thomas Heinis , Artur Yakimovich

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-13 Zhanxiang Hua , Yutong He , Chengqian Ma , Alexandra Anderson-Frey

System identification of complex and nonlinear systems is a central problem for model predictive control and model-based reinforcement learning. Despite their complexity, such systems can often be approximated well by a set of linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-30 Philip Becker-Ehmck , Jan Peters , Patrick van der Smagt

In order to break through the development bottleneck of modern wireless communication networks, a critical issue is the out-of-date channel state information (CSI) in high mobility scenarios. In general, non-stationary CSI has statistical…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-17 Guanzhang Liu , Zhengyang Hu , Lei Wang , Hongying Zhang , Jiang Xue , Michail Matthaiou
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