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Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-01 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

Uncertainties are abundant in complex systems. Mathematical models for these systems thus contain random effects or noises. The models are often in the form of stochastic differential equations, with some parameters to be determined by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jiarui Yang , Jinqiao Duan

Models based on non-Hermitian Hamiltonians can exhibit a range of surprising and potentially useful phenomena. Physical realizations typically involve couplings to sources of incoherent gain and loss; this is problematic in quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-07-03 Yu-Xin Wang , A. A. Clerk

Estimating the parameters governing the dynamics of a system is a prerequisite for its optimal control. We present a simple but powerful method that we call STEADY, for STochastic Estimation algorithm for DYnamical variables, to estimate…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-05-29 Stefan Krastanov , Sisi Zhou , Steven T. Flammia , Liang Jiang

This article presents an innovative approach to integrating port-Hamiltonian systems with neural network architectures, transitioning from deterministic to stochastic models. The study presents novel mathematical formulations and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-26 Luca Di Persio , Matthias Ehrhardt , Sofia Rizzotto

Online system identification algorithms are widely used for monitoring, diagnostics and control by continuously adapting to time-varying dynamics. Typically, these algorithms consider a model structure that lacks parsimony and offers…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-28 Koen Classens , Rodrigo A. González , Tom Oomen

In this article, we primarily propose a novel Bayesian characterization of stationary and nonstationary stochastic processes. In practice, this theory aims to distinguish between global stationarity and nonstationarity for both parametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Sucharita Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-18 Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness , Johan Dahlin

We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Martin Jørgensen , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Hugh Salimbeni

The literature is rich with studies, analyses, and examples on parameter estimation for describing the evolution of chaotic dynamical systems based on measurements, even when only partial information is available through observations.…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-08-07 Michele Baia , Tommaso Matteuzzi , Franco Bagnoli

The decreasing cost and improved sensor and monitoring system technology (e.g. fiber optics and strain gauges) have led to more measurements in close proximity to each other. When using such spatially dense measurement data in Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-21 Ioannis Koune , Arpad Rozsas , Arthur Slobbe , Alice Cicirello

We present a numerical method to learn an accurate predictive model for an unknown stochastic dynamical system from its trajectory data. The method seeks to approximate the unknown flow map of the underlying system. It employs the idea of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Zhongshu Xu , Yuan Chen , Qifan Chen , Dongbin Xiu

Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

Identifying and calibrating quantitative dynamical models for physical quantum systems is important for a variety of applications. Here we present a closed-loop Bayesian learning algorithm for estimating multiple unknown parameters in a…

The Hamiltonian of an isolated quantum mechanical system determines its dynamics and physical behaviour. This study investigates the possibility of learning and utilising a system's Hamiltonian and its variational thermal state estimation…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

Effectively modeling phenomena present in highly nonlinear dynamical systems whilst also accurately quantifying uncertainty is a challenging task, which often requires problem-specific techniques. We present a novel, domain-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-26 Thomas M. McDonald , Mauricio A. Álvarez

We present an empirical strategy to determine the Hamiltonian dynamics of a two-qubit system using only initialization and measurement in a single fixed basis. Signal parameters are estimated from measurement data using Bayesian methods…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-10-01 S. G. Schirmer , D. K. L. Oi

The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction, particularly in situations where experiments are time-consuming and expensive to conduct. We propose a general…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-12-04 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

We propose a principled algorithm for robust Bayesian filtering and smoothing in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems when both the transition function and the measurement function are described by non-parametric Gaussian process (GP)…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-08-13 Marc Peter Deisenroth , Ryan Turner , Marco F. Huber , Uwe D. Hanebeck , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Hamiltonian dynamics describe a wide range of physical systems. As such, data-driven simulations of Hamiltonian systems are important for many scientific and engineering problems. In this work, we propose kernel-based methods for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Yasamin Jalalian , Mostafa Samir , Boumediene Hamzi , Peyman Tavallali , Houman Owhadi