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In 2024, Major League Baseball released new bat tracking data, reporting swing-by-swing bat speed and swing length measured at the point of contact. While exciting, the data present challenges for their interpretation. The timing of the…
Generalization remains a central yet unresolved challenge in deep learning, particularly the ability to predict a model's performance beyond its training distribution using quantities available prior to test-time evaluation. Building on the…
In this paper we give a general definition of weighted fairness and show how this can achieve various fairness definitions, such as those mentioned in the ATM Forum TM 4.0 Specifications. We discuss how a pricing policy can be mapped to…
While PageRank has been extensively used to rank sport tournament participants (teams or individuals), its superiority over simpler ranking methods has been never clearly demonstrated. We use sports results from 18 major leagues to…
Out-of-distribution (OOD) learning deals with scenarios in which training and test data follow different distributions. Although general OOD problems have been intensively studied in machine learning, graph OOD is only an emerging area of…
Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives…
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
In clinical trials, multiple outcomes of different priorities commonly occur as the patient's response may not be adequately characterized by a single outcome. Win statistics are appealing summary measures for between-group difference at…
The "War of Attrition" is a classical game theoretic model that was first introduced to mathematically describe certain non-violent animal behavior. The original setup considers two participating players in a one-shot game competing for a…
Given a real-world graph, how can we measure relevance scores for ranking and link prediction? Random walk with restart (RWR) provides an excellent measure for this and has been applied to various applications such as friend recommendation,…
Though athletics statistics are abundant, it is a difficult task to quantitatively compare performances from different events of track, field, and road running in a meaningful way. There are several commonly-used methods, but each has its…
Win measures, including the win ratio (WR), win odds (WO), net benefit (NB), and desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR), are increasingly used in randomized clinical trials with multiple hierarchical ordinal endpoints. In practice, however,…
Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…
Score matching is a vital tool for learning the distribution of data with applications across many areas including diffusion processes, energy based modelling, and graphical model estimation. Despite all these applications, little work…
Various risk-limiting audit (RLA) methods have been developed for instant-runoff voting (IRV) elections. A recent method, AWAIRE, is the first efficient approach that can take advantage of but does not require cast vote records (CVRs).…
With the emerging needs of creating fairness-aware solutions for search and recommendation systems, a daunting challenge exists of evaluating such solutions. While many of the traditional information retrieval (IR) metrics can capture the…
Ranking sportsmen whose careers took place in different eras is often a contentious issue and the topic of much debate. In this paper we focus on cricket and examine what conclusions may be drawn about the ranking of Test batsmen using data…
Regression-based adjusted plus-minus statistics were developed in basketball and have recently come to hockey. The purpose of these statistics is to provide an estimate of each player's contribution to his team, independent of the strength…
Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual…
Many recent proposals for reducing tanking in draft lotteries share a common structure: losses improve draft position early in the season while wins improve draft position later. While such systems improve late-season incentives, they…