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Large language models (LLMs) are trained on enormous amounts of data and encode knowledge in their parameters. We propose a pipeline to elicit causal relationships from LLMs. Specifically, (i) we sample many documents from LLMs on a given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Takashi Kameyama , Masahiro Kato , Yasuko Hio , Yasushi Takano , Naoto Minakawa

Pursuing invariant prediction from heterogeneous environments opens the door to learning causality in a purely data-driven way and has several applications in causal discovery and robust transfer learning. However, existing methods such as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Yihong Gu , Cong Fang , Yang Xu , Zijian Guo , Jianqing Fan

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Minjie Wang , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

A very important topic in systems biology is developing statistical methods that automatically find causal relations in gene regulatory networks with no prior knowledge of causal connectivity. Many methods have been developed for time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-08-22 Shohei Shimizu

Probabilities of causation provide principled ways to assess causal relationships but face computational challenges due to partial identifiability and latent confounding. This paper introduces both algorithmic simplifications, significantly…

Causal analysis has become an essential component in understanding the underlying causes of phenomena across various fields. Despite its significance, existing literature on causal discovery algorithms is fragmented, with inconsistent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-05 Wenjin Niu , Zijun Gao , Liyan Song , Lingbo Li

We consider the problem of learning a set of direct causes of a target variable from an observational joint distribution. Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that represent the causal structure is a fundamental problem in science.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Juraj Bodik , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

We consider the problem of structure recovery in a graphical model of a tree where some variables are latent. Specifically, we focus on the Gaussian case, which can be reformulated as a well-studied problem: recovering a semi-labeled tree…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Luc Devroye , Gabor Lugosi , Piotr Zwiernik

In regression with random design, we study the problem of selecting a model that performs well for out-of-sample prediction. We do not assume that any of the candidate models under consideration are correct. Our analysis is based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-10-24 Hannes Leeb

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Quentin Duchemin , Guillaume Obozinski

We consider the problem of computing bounds for causal queries on causal graphs with unobserved confounders and discrete valued observed variables, where identifiability does not hold. Existing non-parametric approaches for computing such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Madhumitha Shridharan , Garud Iyengar

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of multiple data sources for statistical analyses. We consider estimation of causal effects combining big main data with unmeasured confounders and smaller validation data with…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Shu Yang , Peng Ding

This work considers the problem of learning the structure of multivariate linear tree models, which include a variety of directed tree graphical models with continuous, discrete, and mixed latent variables such as linear-Gaussian models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-11-09 Animashree Anandkumar , Kamalika Chaudhuri , Daniel Hsu , Sham M. Kakade , Le Song , Tong Zhang

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

Natural image statistics exhibit hierarchical dependencies across multiple scales. Representing such prior knowledge in non-factorial latent tree models can boost performance of image denoising, inpainting, deconvolution or reconstruction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Young Jun Ko , Matthias Seeger

Consider the problem of learning undirected graphical models on trees from corrupted data. Recently Katiyar et al. showed that it is possible to recover trees from noisy binary data up to a small equivalence class of possible trees. Their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-11 Marta Casanellas , Marina Garrote-López , Piotr Zwiernik

We consider the problem of estimating species trees from unrooted gene tree topologies in the presence of incomplete lineage sorting, a common phenomenon that creates gene tree heterogeneity in multilocus datasets. One popular class of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-12-21 Sebastien Roch

Motivation: Algorithms that discover variables which are causally related to a target may inform the design of experiments. With observational gene expression data, many methods discover causal variables by measuring each variable's degree…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-07-30 Eric V. Strobl , Shyam Visweswaran

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou