Related papers: Statistical Learning of Value-at-Risk and Expected…
Historical (Stressed-) Value-at-Risk ((S)VAR), and Expected Shortfall (ES), are widely used risk measures in regulatory capital and Initial Margin, i.e. funding, computations. However, whilst the definitions of VAR and ES are unambiguous,…
We study issues of robustness in the context of Quantitative Risk Management and Optimization. We develop a general methodology for determining whether a given risk measurement related optimization problem is robust, which we call…
Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies that balance the expected reward and risk. In this paper, we present a novel risk-sensitive RL framework that employs an Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR)…
We propose a novel amortized variational inference scheme for an empirical Bayes meta-learning model, where model parameters are treated as latent variables. We learn the prior distribution over model parameters conditioned on limited…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
Supervised learning typically optimizes the expected value risk functional of the loss, but in many cases, we want to optimize for other risk functionals. In full-batch gradient descent, this is done by taking gradients of a risk functional…
We study a class of iterated empirical risk minimization (ERM) procedures in which two successive ERMs are performed on the same dataset, and the predictions of the first estimator enter as an argument in the loss function of the second.…
A statistical learning approach for parametric PDEs related to Uncertainty Quantification is derived. The method is based on the minimization of an empirical risk on a selected model class and it is shown to be applicable to a broad range…
Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…
We consider a class of risk-averse submodular maximization problems (RASM) where the objective is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of a random nondecreasing submodular function at a given risk level. We propose valid inequalities and an…
The modeling and identification of time series data with a long memory are important in various fields. The streamflow discharge is one such example that can be reasonably described as an aggregated stochastic process of randomized affine…
This paper consider considers the problem of locating a two dimensional target from range-measurements containing outliers. Assuming that the number of outlier is known, we formulate the problem of minimizing inlier losses while ignoring…
Risk sensitive decision making finds important applications in current day use cases. Existing risk measures consider a single or finite collection of random variables, which do not account for the asymptotic behaviour of underlying…
Policy evaluation is a crucial step in many reinforcement-learning procedures, which estimates a value function that predicts states' long-term value under a given policy. In this paper, we focus on policy evaluation with linear function…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in modeling complex time series and has been exploited in many fields. However, fitting high dimensional VAR model poses some unique challenges: On one hand, the dimensionality,…
This paper proposes a safety analysis method that facilitates a tunable balance between the worst-case and risk-neutral perspectives. First, we define a risk-sensitive safe set to specify the degree of safety attained by a stochastic…
This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…
We propose an efficient algorithm for learning mappings between two metric spaces, $\X$ and $\Y$. Our procedure is strongly Bayes-consistent whenever $\X$ and $\Y$ are topologically separable and $\Y$ is "bounded in expectation" (our term;…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…
This article presents a new method for forecasting Value at Risk. Convolutional neural networks can do time series forecasting, since they can learn local patterns in time. A simple modification enables them to forecast not the mean, but…