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Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

The Difference-in-Differences (DiD) method is a fundamental tool for causal inference, yet its application is often complicated by missing data. Although recent work has developed robust DiD estimators for complex settings like staggered…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Lorenzo Testa , Edward H. Kennedy , Matthew Reimherr

In randomised trials, continuous endpoints are often measured with some degree of error. This study explores the impact of ignoring measurement error, and proposes methods to improve statistical inference in the presence of measurement…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-30 Linda Nab , Rolf H. H. Groenwold , Paco M. J. Welsing , Maarten van Smeden

Adaptive designs are commonly used in clinical and drug development studies for optimum utilization of available resources. In this article, we consider the problem of estimating the effect of the selected (better) treatment using a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-24 Masihuddin , Neeraj Misra

Multi-arm trials are gaining interest in practice given the statistical and logistical advantages they can offer. The standard approach uses a fixed allocation ratio, but there is a call for making it adaptive and skewing the allocation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Gianmarco Caruso , Pavel Mozgunov

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Eichi Uehara

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is often carried out in 2 steps, wherein the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimator. In the first steps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-21 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela

Construction of just-in-time adaptive interventions, such as prompts delivered by mobile apps to promote and maintain behavioral change, requires knowledge about time-varying moderated effects to inform when and how we deliver intervention…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Jieru Shi , Zhenke Wu , Walter Dempsey

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) are the current gold standards to empirically measure the effect of a new drug. However, they may be of limited size and resorting to complementary non-randomized data, referred to as observational, is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-11 Ahmed Boughdiri , Julie Josse , Erwan Scornet

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are sequences of decision rules to guide treatment assignments in response to a patient's evolving, time-varying disease status. Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) are considered the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Xinru Wang , Meghna Bose , Bibhas Chakraborty , Robert Mahar

Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs) are sequential decision rules tailored at each stage by potentially time-varying patient features and intermediate outcomes observed in previous stages. The complexity, patient heterogeneity and chronicity…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-09 Ying Liu , Yuanjia Wang , Michael R. Kosorok , Yingqi Zhao , Donglin Zeng

While randomized trials may be the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of the treatment intervention, in some special circumstances, single-arm clinical trials utilizing external control may be considered. The causal treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Huan Wang , Fei Wu , Yeh-Fong Chen

Biomarker-guided designs are increasingly used to evaluate personalized treatments based on patients' biomarker status in Phase II and III clinical trials. With adaptive enrichment, these designs can improve the efficiency of evaluating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Kaiyuan Hua , Hwanhee Hong , Xiaofei Wang

Evaluating and tracking patients' functional status through the post-acute care continuum requires a common instrument. However, different post-acute service providers such as nursing homes, inpatient rehabilitation facilities and home…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Chenyang Gu , Roee Gutman

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Rui Wang , Ying-Qi Zhao , Oliver Dukes , Bo Zhang

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-18 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

Multi-Arm Multi-Stage (MAMS) platform trials are an efficient tool for the comparison of several treatments. Suppose we wish to add a treatment to a trial already in progress, to access the benefits of a MAMS design. How should this be…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-25 Thomas Burnett , Franz König , Thomas Jaki

The onset of several silent, chronic diseases such as diabetes can be detected only through diagnostic tests. Due to cost considerations, self-reported outcomes are routinely collected in lieu of expensive diagnostic tests in large-scale…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-15 Xiangdong Gu , Yunsheng Ma , Raji Balasubramanian

Although randomized controlled trials have long been regarded as the ``gold standard'' for evaluating treatment effects, there is no natural prevention from post-treatment events. For example, non-compliance makes the actual treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-25 Qinqing Liu , Xiang Peng , Tao Zhang , Yuhao Deng