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Industrial processes generate a massive amount of monitoring data that can be exploited to uncover hidden time losses in the system. This can be used to enhance the accuracy of maintenance policies and increase the effectiveness of the…
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…
Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in multivariate time series analysis for describing the short-time dynamics of the data. The reduced-rank VAR models are of particular interest when dealing with high-dimensional and highly…
This paper investigates the sensitivity of forecast performance measures to taking a real time versus pseudo out-of-sample perspective. We use monthly vintages for the United States (US) and the Euro Area (EA) and estimate a set of vector…
The vector autoregression (VAR) has long proven to be an effective method for modeling the joint dynamics of macroeconomic time series as well as forecasting. A major shortcoming of the VAR that has hindered its applicability is its heavy…
Rate-distortion formulation is the information-theoretic approach to the study of signal encoding systems. Since a more general approach to model the nonstationarity exhibited by real-world signals is to use appropriately fitted time…
The geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a well-known statistical approach to explore spatial non-stationarity of the regression relationship in spatial data analysis. In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian recourse of GWR. Bayesian…
We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the…
Compositional data, such as regional shares of economic sectors or property transactions, are central to understanding structural change in economic systems across space and time. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal multivariate…
This paper investigates a partially linear spatial autoregressive panel data model that incorporates fixed effects, constant and time-varying regression coefficients, and a time-varying spatial lag coefficient. A two-stage least squares…
In this contribution we introduce weakly locally stationary time series through the local approximation of the non-stationary covariance structure by a stationary one. This allows us to define autoregression coefficients in a non-stationary…
With regard to a three-step estimation procedure, proposed without theoretical discussion by Li and You in Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, for a nonparametric regression model with time-varying regression function, local…
Time-varying parameter vector autoregression provides a flexible framework to capture structural changes within time series. However, when applied to high-dimensional data, this model encounters challenges of over-parametrization and…
This paper proposes a fast two-stage variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm to estimate unrestricted panel spatial autoregressive models. Using Dirichlet-Laplace priors, we are able to uncover the spatial relationships between cross-sectional…
We develop a dynamic factor stochastic volatility-in-mean (SVM) specification for vector autoregressions (VARs) that embeds an SVM component within a dynamic factor stochastic volatility structure. A small number of latent volatility…
We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time…
A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step…
The literature on multivariate time series is, largely, limited to either models based on the multivariate Gaussian distribution or models specifically developed for a given application. In this paper we develop a general approach which is…
We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…