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Related papers: Variational Causal Inference

200 papers

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

We regularly consider answering counterfactual questions in practice, such as "Would people with diabetes take a turn for the better had they choose another medication?". Observational studies are growing in significance in answering such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Raaz Dwivedi , Katherine Tian , Sabina Tomkins , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy , Devavrat Shah

With the evolution of single-cell RNA sequencing techniques into a standard approach in genomics, it has become possible to conduct cohort-level causal inferences based on single-cell-level measurements. However, the individual gene…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Jin-Hong Du , Zhenghao Zeng , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman , Kathryn Roeder

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal relationships. One…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-12-01 Pedro A. Ortega

Counterfactual evaluation of novel treatment assignment functions (e.g., advertising algorithms and recommender systems) is one of the most crucial causal inference problems for practitioners. Traditionally, randomized controlled trials…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-23 Michael C. Burkhart , Gabriel Ruiz

This paper investigates how certain relationship between observed and counterfactual distributions serves as an identifying condition for treatment effects when the treatment is endogenous, and shows that this condition holds in a range of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 Sukjin Han , Haiqing Xu

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

A powerful tool for the analysis of nonrandomized observational studies has been the potential outcomes model. Utilization of this framework allows analysts to estimate average treatment effects. This article considers the situation in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-31 Debashis Ghosh , Efrén Cruz-Cortés

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Nabeel Seedat , Fergus Imrie , Alexis Bellot , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Harsh Parikh , Carlos Varjao , Louise Xu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In causal inference confounding may be controlled either through regression adjustment in an outcome model, or through propensity score adjustment or inverse probability of treatment weighting, or both. The latter approaches, which are…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-17 Olli Saarela , Léo R. Belzile , David A. Stephens

We describe the principles of counterfactual thinking in providing more precise definitions of causal effects and some of the implications of this work for the way in which causal questions in life course research are framed and evidence…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-18 Bianca De Stavola , Moritz Herle , Andrew Pickles

Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Ramaravind Kommiya Mothilal , Amit Sharma , Chenhao Tan

Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Christopher B. Boyer , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

In this paper we study the problem of making predictions using multiple structural casual models defined by different agents, under the constraint that the prediction satisfies the criterion of counterfactual fairness. Relying on the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-25 Fabio Massimo Zennaro , Magdalena Ivanovska