Related papers: Weak Supervision in Analysis of News: Application …
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) is a critical indicator in economic studies, while it can be used to forecast a recession. Under higher levels of uncertainty, firms' owners cut their investment, which leads to a longer post-recession…
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) represents the uncertainty realized by the investors during economic policy alterations. EPU is a critical indicator in economic studies to predict future investments, the unemployment rate, and recessions.…
Quantification of economic uncertainty is a key concept for the prediction of macro economic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), and it becomes particularly relevant on real-time or short-time predictions methodologies, such as…
Methods and applications are inextricably linked in science, and in particular in the domain of text-as-data. In this paper, we examine one such text-as-data application, an established economic index that measures economic policy…
The Economic Policy Uncertainty index had gained considerable traction with both academics and policy practitioners. Here, we analyse news feed data to construct a simple, general measure of uncertainty in the United States using a highly…
Extraction of financial and economic events from text has previously been done mostly using rule-based methods, with more recent works employing machine learning techniques. This work is in line with this latter approach, leveraging…
This paper defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty of observations of macroeconomic variables that depend on statistical moments and correlations of random values and volumes of market trades. Any econometric assessments of…
Supervised machine learning and predictive models have achieved an impressive standard today, enabling us to answer questions that were inconceivable a few years ago. Besides these successes, it becomes clear, that beyond pure prediction,…
Limited labeled data is becoming the largest bottleneck for supervised learning systems. This is especially the case for many real-world tasks where large scale annotated examples are either too expensive to acquire or unavailable due to…
An increase in the novelty of news predicts negative stock market returns and negative macroeconomic outcomes over the next year. We quantify news novelty - changes in the distribution of news text - through an entropy measure, calculated…
The macroeconomic climate influences operations with regard to, e.g., raw material prices, financing, supply chain utilization and demand quotas. In order to adapt to the economic environment, decision-makers across the public and private…
Bayesian deep learning plays an important role especially for its ability evaluating epistemic uncertainty (EU). Due to computational complexity issues, approximation methods such as variational inference (VI) have been used in practice to…
Anticipating price developments in financial markets is a topic of continued interest in forecasting. Funneled by advancements in deep learning and natural language processing (NLP) together with the availability of vast amounts of textual…
Automatic fact-checking systems detect misinformation, such as fake news, by (i) selecting check-worthy sentences for fact-checking, (ii) gathering related information to the sentences, and (iii) inferring the factuality of the sentences.…
In many applications, training machine learning models involves using large amounts of human-annotated data. Obtaining precise labels for the data is expensive. Instead, training with weak supervision provides a low-cost alternative. We…
Quantification of the political leaning of online news articles can aid in understanding the dynamics of political ideology in social groups and measures to mitigating them. However, predicting the accurate political leaning of a news…
We develop a resource-efficient methodology for measuring economic outlook in news text that combines document embeddings with synthetic training data generated by large language models. Applied to 27 million news articles, the resulting…
Since fake news poses a serious threat to society and individuals, numerous studies have been brought by considering text, propagation and user profiles. Due to the data collection problem, these methods based on propagation and user…
Accurately forecasting Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) is essential for designing climate strategies that balance economic growth with environmental objectives. Elevated CPU levels can delay regulatory implementation, hinder investment in…
The Economy Watcher Survey, which is a market survey published by the Japanese government, contains \emph{assessments of current and future economic conditions} by people from various fields. Although this survey provides insights regarding…