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Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are widely considered the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of new treatments or interventions in drug development. Still, they may not be feasible in certain cases, such as with rare diseases…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Di Ran , Fanni Zhang , Sima Shahsavari , Kristine Broglio , Alasdair Henderson , Binbing Yu

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for assessing drug safety and efficacy. However, RCTs have some drawbacks which have led to the use of single-arm studies to make certain internal drug development and regulatory…

Hybrid randomized controlled trials (hybrid RCTs) integrate external control data, such as historical or concurrent data, with data from randomized trials. While numerous frequentist and Bayesian methods, such as the test-then-pool and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Han Chang Chiam , Franz König , Martin Posch

Clinical trials with a hybrid control arm (a control arm constructed from a combination of randomized patients and real-world data on patients receiving usual care in standard clinical practice) have the potential to decrease the cost of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 Joanna Harton , Brian Segal , Ronac Mamtani , Nandita Mitra , Rebecca Hubbard

A growing number of oncology treatments, such as bevacizumab, are used across multiple indications. However, in health technology assessment (HTA), their clinical and cost-effectiveness are typically appraised within a single target…

When a novel treatment has successfully passed phase I, different options to design subsequent phase II trials are available. One approach is a single-arm trial, comparing the response rate in the intervention group against a fixed…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-03 Johannes Krisam , Dorothea Weber , Richard F. Schlenk , Meinhard Kieser

In early phase drug development of combination therapy, the primary objective is to preliminarily assess whether there is additive activity from a novel agent when combined with an established monotherapy. Due to potential feasibility…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Zhaohua Lu , John Toso , Girma Ayele , Philip He

Dose-finding trials for oncology studies are traditionally designed to assess safety in the early stages of drug development. With the rise of molecularly targeted therapies and immuno-oncology compounds, biomarker-driven approaches have…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Xijin Chen , Pavel Mozgunov , Richard D. Baird , Thomas Jaki

Phase I early-phase clinical studies aim at investigating the safety and the underlying dose-toxicity relationship of a drug or combination. While little may still be known about the compound's properties, it is crucial to consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 Christian Röver , Moreno Ursino , Tim Friede , Sarah Zohar

We propose a new integrated phase I/II trial design to identify the most efficacious dose combination that also satisfies certain safety requirements for drug-combination trials. We first take a Bayesian copula-type model for dose finding…

Applications · Statistics 2011-08-09 Ying Yuan , Guosheng Yin

Phase I dose-finding studies aim at identifying the maximal tolerated dose (MTD). It is not uncommon that several dose-finding studies are conducted, although often with some variation in the administration mode or dose panel. For instance,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-03-24 Moreno Ursino , Christian Röver , Sarah Zohar , Tim Friede

The use of drug combinations in clinical trials is increasingly common during the last years since a more favorable therapeutic response may be obtained by combining drugs. In phase I clinical trials, most of the existing methodology…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-17 José L. Jiménez , Sungjin Kim , Mourad Tighiouart

Single-arm trials are an important study design for evaluating drug efficacy and safety without enrolling patients into a control arm. Although they do not provide the gold-standard evidence of randomized controlled trials, they are…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-14 Daniele Bertolini , Franklin Fuller , Aaron M. Smith , Jonathan R. Walsh , Run Zhuang

We propose a multi-metric flexible Bayesian framework to support efficient interim decision-making in multi-arm multi-stage phase II clinical trials. Multi-arm multi-stage phase II studies increase the efficiency of drug development, but…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-15 Suzanne M. Dufault , Angela M. Crook , Katie Rolfe , Patrick P. J. Phillips

The use of historical controls offers a valuable alternative when traditional randomized controlled trials are not feasible. However, such approaches may introduce bias due to temporal changes in patient populations, diagnostic criteria,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Marco Ratta , Pavel Mozgunov , Sandrine Boulet , Moreno Ursino

Practical employment of Bayesian trial designs is still rare. Even if accepted in principle, the regulators have commonly required that such designs be calibrated according to an upper bound for the frequentist type I error rate. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Elja Arjas , Dario Gasbarra

Efforts to develop biomarker-targeted anti-cancer therapies have progressed rapidly in recent years. Six antibodies acting on programmed death ligand 1 or programmed death 1 pathways were approved in 75 cancer indications between 2015 and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-07 Emily C. Zabor , Alexander M. Kaizer , Nathan A. Pennell , Brian P. Hobbs

Research in oncology has changed the focus from histological properties of tumors in a specific organ to a specific genomic aberration potentially shared by multiple cancer types. This motivates the basket trial, which assesses the efficacy…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-11 Jin Jin , Marie-Karelle Riviere , Xiaodong Luo , Yingwen Dong

Hybrid controlled trials (HCTs), which augment randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external controls (ECs), are increasingly receiving attention as a way to address limited power, slow accrual, and ethical concerns in clinical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-02 Jiajun Liu , Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

Chemotherapy is one of the primary modalities of cancer treatment. Chemotherapy drug administration is a complex problem that often requires expensive clinical trials to evaluate potential regimens. One way to alleviate this burden and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-04 Temitayo Ajayi , Seyedmohammadhossein Hosseinian , Andrew J. Schaefer , Clifton D. Fuller
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