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This paper is devoted to parameter estimation for partially observed polynomial state space models. This class includes discretely observed affine or more generally polynomial Markov processes. The polynomial structure allows for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-11 Jan Kallsen , Ivo Richert

Consider a collection of competing machine learning algorithms. Given their performance on a benchmark of datasets, we would like to identify the best performing algorithm. Specifically, which algorithm is most likely to rank highest on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Amichai Painsky

We present a new bound for suprema of a special type of chaos processes indexed by a set of matrices, which is based on a chaining method. As applications we show significantly improved estimates for the restricted isometry constants of…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-20 Felix Krahmer , Shahar Mendelson , Holger Rauhut

In the seminal contribution [4] the joint weak convergence of maxima and minima of weakly dependent stationary sequences is derived under some mild asymptotic conditions. In this paper we address additionally the case of incomplete samples…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-08 Enkelejd Hashorva , Zhichao Weng

Hierarchical statistical models are widely employed in information science and data engineering. The models consist of two types of variables: observable variables that represent the given data and latent variables for the unobservable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-21 Keisuke Yamazaki

Human activity patterns display a bursty dynamics, with interevent times following a heavy tailed distribution. This behavior has been recently shown to be rooted in the fact that humans assign their active tasks different priorities, a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Alexei Vazquez

We study a new random matrix ensemble $X$ which is constructed by an application of a two dimensional linear filter to a matrix of iid random variables with infinite fourth moments. Our result gives asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-03 Oliver Pfaffel

This paper establishes asymptotic results for the maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimators of the parameters in the nested error regression model for clustered data when both of the number of independent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-25 Ziyang Lyu , A. H. Welsh

Seemingly unrelated linear regression models are introduced in which the distribution of the errors is a finite mixture of Gaussian components. Identifiability conditions are provided. The score vector and the Hessian matrix are derived.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Giuliano Galimberti , Elena Scardovi , Gabriele Soffritti

We propose a general framework to study last passage times, suprema and drawdowns of a large class of stochastic processes. A central role in our approach is played by processes of class Sigma. After investigating convergence properties and…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-30 Patrick Cheridito , Ashkan Nikeghbali , Eckhard Platen

Stochastic processes that are randomly reset to an initial condition serve as a showcase to investigate non-equilibrium steady states. However, all existing results have been restricted to the special case of memoryless resetting protocols.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-03-23 Stephan Eule , Jakob Metzger

We study the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimators of the unknown parameters of bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under very weak assumptions on the driven noise of the process, namely conditional pair-wise independence…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-29 Bernard Bercu , Benoite de Saporta , Anne Gegout-Petit

Any limiting point process for the time normalized exceedances of high levels by a stationary sequence is necessarily compound Poisson under appropriate long range dependence conditions. Typically exceedances appear in clusters. The…

Applications · Statistics 2009-03-03 Christian Y. Robert

In this paper, we consider asymptotic behaviors of multiscale multivalued stochastic systems with small noises. First of all, for general, fully coupled systems for multivalued stochastic differential equations of slow and fast motions with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Huijie Qiao

We develop a full-fledged analysis of an algorithmic decision process that, in a multialternative choice problem, produces computable choice probabilities and expected decision times.

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-08 Carlo Baldassi , Fabio Maccheroni , Massimo Marinacci , Marco Pirazzini

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Connor T. Jerzak , Rebecca Goldstein

The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-15 Raphaël Huser , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-17 Rafał Kulik , Philippe Soulier

We introduce the problem of estimation of the parameters of a dynamically selected population in an infinite sequence of random variables and provide its application in the statistical inference based on record values from a non-stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-01 Morteza Amini , Nader Nematollahi

We obtain the distribution of the maximal average in a sequence of independent identically distributed exponential random variables. Surprisingly enough, it turns out that the inverse distribution admits a simple closed form. An application…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-25 Dimitris Cheliotis , Nickos Papadatos