Related papers: BeyondPlanck IV. On end-to-end simulations in CMB …
Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations…
Establishing the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches widens their appeal and offers new understanding. In hypothesis testing, Bayesian model averaging addresses the problem that conclusions are sensitive to variable selection. But…
Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…
In a bivariate meta-analysis the number of diagnostic studies involved is often very low so that frequentist methods may result in problems. Bayesian inference is attractive as informative priors that add small amount of information can…
Plasma-terminating disruptions in future fusion reactors may result in conversion of the initial current to a relativistic runaway electron beam. Validated predictive tools are required to optimize the scenarios and mitigation actuators to…
Computer models are widely used to study complex real world physical systems. However, there are major limitations to their direct use including: their complex structure; large numbers of inputs and outputs; and long evaluation times.…
One of the main unsolved problems of cosmology is how to maximize the extraction of information from nonlinear data. If the data are nonlinear the usual approach is to employ a sequence of statistics (N-point statistics, counting statistics…
Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest in employing flexible machine learning models for instrumental variable (IV) regression, but the development of uncertainty quantification methodology is still lacking. In this work we…
Neural Networks (NNs) have provided state-of-the-art results for many challenging machine learning tasks such as detection, regression and classification across the domains of computer vision, speech recognition and natural language…
This paper provides a review of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods for carrying out Bayesian posterior inference, through the lens of density estimation. We describe several recent algorithms and make connection with traditional…
Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to…
Artificial Neural Networks are connectionist systems that perform a given task by learning on examples without having prior knowledge about the task. This is done by finding an optimal point estimate for the weights in every node.…
Concept bottleneck models (CBMs) are a class of interpretable neural network models that predict the target response of a given input based on its high-level concepts. Unlike the standard end-to-end models, CBMs enable domain experts to…
Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the…
When dealing with datasets containing a billion instances or with simulations that require a supercomputer to execute, computational resources become part of the equation. We can improve the efficiency of learning and inference by…
Deep learning models are being used for the analysis of parametric statistical models based on simulation-only frameworks. Bayesian models using normalizing flows simulate data from a prior distribution and are composed of two deep neural…
This paper develops new insights into quantitative methods for the validation of computational model prediction. Four types of methods are investigated, namely classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing, a reliability-based method, and an…
In this paper, a Bayesian approach is developed for simultaneously comparing multiple experimental treatments with a common control treatment in an exploratory clinical trial. The sample size is set to ensure that, at the end of the study,…
The formalism of quantum estimation theory with a specific focus on classical data postprocessing is applied to a two-level system driven by an external gyrating magnetic field. We employed both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to…
The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…