Related papers: Towards a Likelihood Ratio Approach for Bloodstain…
One of the most important results in Bloodstain Pattern Analysis (BPA) is the determination of the area of convergence of blood-drop trajectories. This area is directly related to the point of origin of the projections and is often…
Bloodstain Pattern Analysis (BPA) helps us understand how bloodstains form, with a focus on their size, shape, and distribution. This aids in crime scene reconstruction and provides insight into victim positions and crime investigation. One…
A complete procedure for identifying the area of convergence of blood drops originated from a single static source is presented. Both for bloodstains lying on an horizontal and on a vertical plane a complete study is developed, based on…
The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this…
The "rare type match problem" is the situation in which the suspect's DNA profile, matching the DNA profile of the crime stain, is not in the database of reference. The evaluation of this match in the light of the two competing hypotheses…
For several decades, legal and scientific scholars have argued that conclusions from forensic examinations should be supported by statistical data and reported within a probabilistic framework. Multiple models have been proposed to quantify…
The persistent issue of wrongful convictions in the United States emphasizes the need for scrutiny and improvement of the criminal justice system. While statistical methods for the evaluation of forensic evidence, including glass,…
In the Bayesian paradigm for presenting forensic evidence to court, it is recommended that the weight of the evidence be summarized as a likelihood ratio (LR) between two opposing hypotheses of how the evidence could have been produced.…
Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…
The likelihood ratio (LR) measures the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses. Several levels of uncertainty arise if frequentist methods are chosen for its assessment: the assumed population model only approximates the…
When presenting forensic evidence, such as a DNA match, experts often use the Likelihood ratio (LR) to explain the impact of evidence . The LR measures the probative value of the evidence with respect to a single hypothesis such as 'DNA…
In 2016, the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) published guidelines for the evaluation, interpretation and reporting of scientific evidence. In the guidelines, ENFSI endorsed the use of the likelihood ratio (LR) as a…
A simple and common type of medical research involves the comparison of one treatment against another. The logical aim should be both to establish which treatment is superior and the strength of evidence supporting this conclusion, a task…
The likelihood ratio (LR) is largely used to evaluate the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses and for its assessment Bayesian methods are widespread in the forensic field. However, the Bayesian `recipe' for the LR…
The evaluation of a match between the DNA profile of a stain found on a crime scene and that of a suspect (previously identified) involves the use of the unknown parameter $p=(p_1, p_2, ...)$, (the ordered vector which represents the…
The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…
A group of approaches for calculating forensic likelihood ratios first calculates scores which quantify the degree of difference or the degree of similarity between pairs of samples, then converts those scores to likelihood ratios. In order…
The robust Poisson method is becoming increasingly popular when estimating the association of exposures with a binary outcome. Unlike the logistic regression model, the robust Poisson method yields results that can be interpreted as risk or…
We develop a likelihood methodology which can be used to search for evidence of burst repetition in the BATSE catalog, and to study the properties of the repetition signal. We use a simplified model of burst repetition in which a number…
The aim of this work is to develop methods for studying the determinants of marriage incidence using marriage histories collected under two different types of retrospective cross-sectional study designs. These designs are: sampling of ever…