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We develop techniques to quantify the degree to which a given (training or testing) example is an outlier in the underlying distribution. We evaluate five methods to score examples in a dataset by how well-represented the examples are, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Nicholas Carlini , Úlfar Erlingsson , Nicolas Papernot

Gorman and Bedrick (2019) argued for using random splits rather than standard splits in NLP experiments. We argue that random splits, like standard splits, lead to overly optimistic performance estimates. We can also split data in biased or…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-04-27 Anders Søgaard , Sebastian Ebert , Jasmijn Bastings , Katja Filippova

The development of cluster computing frameworks has allowed practitioners to scale out various statistical estimation and machine learning algorithms with minimal programming effort. This is especially true for machine learning problems…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-24 Robin Vogel , Aurélien Bellet , Stephan Clémençon , Ons Jelassi , Guillaume Papa

Particle splitting methods are considered for the estimation of rare events. The probability of interest is that a Markov process first enters a set $B$ before another set $A$, and it is assumed that this probability satisfies a large…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-14 Thomas Dean , Paul Dupuis

Reliable detection of bearing faults is essential for maintaining the safety and operational efficiency of rotating machinery. While recent advances in machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning, have shown strong performance in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 João Paulo Vieira , Victor Afonso Bauler , Rodrigo Kobashikawa Rosa , Danilo Silva

We propose and analyze a generalized splitting method to sample approximately from a distribution conditional on the occurrence of a rare event. This has important applications in a variety of contexts in operations research, engineering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-10 Zdravko I. Botev , Pierre L'Ecuyer

It is widely believed that the prediction accuracy of decision tree models is invariant under any strictly monotone transformation of the individual predictor variables. However, this statement may be false when predicting new observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-16 Tal Galili , Isaac Meilijson

A common approach to statistical learning with big-data is to randomly split it among $m$ machines and learn the parameter of interest by averaging the $m$ individual estimates. In this paper, focusing on empirical risk minimization, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-14 Jonathan Rosenblatt , Boaz Nadler

Meta-learning aims to perform fast adaptation on a new task through learning a "prior" from multiple existing tasks. A common practice in meta-learning is to perform a train-validation split (\emph{train-val method}) where the prior adapts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Yu Bai , Minshuo Chen , Pan Zhou , Tuo Zhao , Jason D. Lee , Sham Kakade , Huan Wang , Caiming Xiong

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a crucial task in online advertising to recommend products that users are likely to be interested in. To identify the best-performing models, rigorous model evaluation is necessary. Offline…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Ramazan Tarik Turksoy , Beyza Turkmen

The estimated accuracy of a classifier is a random quantity with variability. A common practice in supervised machine learning, is thus to test if the estimated accuracy is significantly better than chance level. This method of signal…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-28 Jonathan D. Rosenblatt , Yuval Benjamini , Roee Gilron , Roy Mukamel , Jelle J. Goeman

Recursive partitioning approaches producing tree-like models are a long standing staple of predictive modeling, in the last decade mostly as ``sub-learners'' within state of the art ensemble methods like Boosting and Random Forest. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-14 Amichai Painsky , Saharon Rosset

We propose a unified rare-event estimator for the performance evaluation of wireless communication systems. The estimator is derived from the well-known multilevel splitting algorithm. In its original form, the splitting algorithm cannot be…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-08-29 Nadhir Ben Rached , Daniel MacKinlay , Zdravko Botev , Raul Tempone , Mohamed-Slim Alouini

The randomized or cross-validated split of training and testing sets has been adopted as the gold standard of machine learning for decades. The establishment of these split protocols are based on two assumptions: (i)-fixing the dataset to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-09 Jimin Tan , Jianan Yang , Sai Wu , Gang Chen , Jake Zhao

This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2011-08-31 Doug Speed , Simon Tavaré

Sample splitting is widely used in statistical applications, including classically in classification and more recently for inference post model selection. Motivating by problems in the study of diet, physical activity, and health, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-13 Eli S. Kravitz , Raymond J. Carroll , David Ruppert

This paper is a broad and accessible survey of the methods we have at our disposal for Monte Carlo gradient estimation in machine learning and across the statistical sciences: the problem of computing the gradient of an expectation of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-30 Shakir Mohamed , Mihaela Rosca , Michael Figurnov , Andriy Mnih

Machine unlearning (MU) aims to remove the influence of certain data points from a trained model without costly retraining. Most practical MU algorithms are only approximate and their performance can only be assessed empirically. Care must…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Jamie Lanyon , Axel Finke , Petros Andreou , Georgina Cosma

Drug-target binding affinity prediction is a fundamental task for drug discovery. It has been extensively explored in literature and promising results are reported. However, in this paper, we demonstrate that the results may be misleading…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Chenbin Zhang , Zhiqiang Hu , Chuchu Jiang , Wen Chen , Jie Xu , Shaoting Zhang

Distribution shifts are ubiquitous in real-world machine learning applications, posing a challenge to the generalization of models trained on one data distribution to another. We focus on scenarios where data distributions vary across…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Steven Wilkins-Reeves , Xu Chen , Qi Ma , Christine Agarwal , Aude Hofleitner