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Related papers: Quantifying Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in…

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Entropic uncertainty relations provide an information-theoretic framework for quantifying the fundamental indeterminacy inherent in quantum mechanics. We propose more stringent quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations for…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-07 Qing-Hua Zhang , Cong Xu , Jing-Feng Wu , Shao-Ming Fei

Uncertainty quantification is a key aspect in many tasks such as model selection/regularization, or quantifying prediction uncertainties to perform active learning or OOD detection. Within credal approaches that consider modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Tuan-Anh Vu , Sébastien Destercke , Frédéric Pichon

Decomposing predictive uncertainty into epistemic (model ignorance) and aleatoric (data ambiguity) components is central to reliable decision making, yet most methods estimate both from the same predictive distribution. Recent empirical and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Tanmoy Mukherjee , Marius Kloft , Pierre Marquis , Zied Bouraoui

The uncertainty principle sets a bound on our ability to predict the measurement outcomes of two incompatible observables which are measured on a quantum particle simultaneously. In quantum information theory, the uncertainty principle can…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-12-03 H. Dolatkhah , S. Haseli , S. Salimi , A. s. Khorashad

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Laura A. Mansfield , Hannah M. Christensen

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

We introduce a new information-theoretic formulation of quantum measurement uncertainty relations, based on the notion of relative entropy between measurement probabilities. In the case of a finite-dimensional system and for any approximate…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2018-03-02 Alberto Barchielli , Matteo Gregoratti , Alessandro Toigo

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-20 Thomas Mortier , Viktor Bengs , Eyke Hüllermeier , Stijn Luca , Willem Waegeman

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Lisa Wimmer , Eyke Hüllermeier , Thomas Nagler

Bayesian inference can quantify uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks using posterior distributions for model parameters and network output. By looking at these posterior distributions, one can separate the origin of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 H. Linander , O. Balabanov , H. Yang , B. Mehlig

Quantifying the uncertainty of supervised learning models plays an important role in making more reliable predictions. Epistemic uncertainty, which usually is due to insufficient knowledge about the model, can be reduced by collecting more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-27 Xinlei Zhou , Han Liu , Farhad Pourpanah , Tieyong Zeng , Xizhao Wang

A new combinatorial-probabilistic diagnostic entropy has been introduced. It describes the pair-wise sum of probabilities of system conditions that have to be distinguished during the diagnosing process. The proposed measure describes the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-09-29 Henryk Borowczyk

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Thom Badings , Thiago D. Simão , Marnix Suilen , Nils Jansen

One of the defining traits of quantum mechanics is the uncertainty principle which was originally expressed in terms of the standard deviation of two observables. Alternatively, it can be formulated using entropic measures, and can also be…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-09-30 Göktuğ Karpat , Jyrki Piilo , Sabrina Maniscalco

Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-03-16 Varun Narasimhachar , Alireza Poostindouz , Gilad Gour

An analysis of quantum measurement is presented that relies on an information-theoretic description of quantum entanglement. In a consistent quantum information theory of entanglement, entropies (uncertainties) conditional on measurement…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2008-02-03 N. J. Cerf , C. Adami

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Reality of quantum observables, a feature of long-standing interest within foundations of quantum mechanics, has recently been quantified and deeply studied by means of entropic measures [Phys. Rev. A 97, 022107 (2018)]. However, there is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-01-29 Łukasz Rudnicki

The calibration of predictive distributions has been widely studied in deep learning, but the same cannot be said about the more specific epistemic uncertainty as produced by Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Deep Networks, or Evidential Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Mohammed Fellaji , Frédéric Pennerath , Brieuc Conan-Guez , Miguel Couceiro

Bayesian neural networks have successfully designed and optimized a robust neural network model in many application problems, including uncertainty quantification. However, with its recent success, information-theoretic understanding about…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Jae Oh Woo