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Most pregnancies and births result in a good outcome, but complications are not uncommon and when they do occur, they can be associated with serious implications for mothers and babies. Predictive modeling has the potential to improve…

We introduce Matched Machine Learning, a framework that combines the flexibility of machine learning black boxes with the interpretability of matching, a longstanding tool in observational causal inference. Interpretability is paramount in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-05 Marco Morucci , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Though black-box predictors are state-of-the-art for many complex tasks, they often fail to properly quantify predictive uncertainty and may provide inappropriate predictions for unfamiliar data. Instead, we can learn more reliable models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-14 Jean Feng , Arjun Sondhi , Jessica Perry , Noah Simon

State of the art machine learning algorithms are highly optimized to provide the optimal prediction possible, naturally resulting in complex models. While these models often outperform simpler more interpretable models by order of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-24 Yotam Hechtlinger

We present an interpretable companion model for any pre-trained black-box classifiers. The idea is that for any input, a user can decide to either receive a prediction from the black-box model, with high accuracy but no explanations, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-12 Danqing Pan , Tong Wang , Satoshi Hara

Causal approaches to post-hoc explainability for black-box prediction models (e.g., deep neural networks trained on image pixel data) have become increasingly popular. However, existing approaches have two important shortcomings: (i) the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Numair Sani , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

Modern predictive analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-driven decision making. In the context of business process management, predictive analytics has been applied to making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Renuka Sindhgatta , Chun Ouyang , Catarina Moreira

Strategies based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) have promoted better human interpretability of the results of black box models. This opens up the possibility of questioning whether explanations created by XAI methods meet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 José Ribeiro , Níkolas Carneiro , Ronnie Alves

Predictive modeling is invaded by elastic, yet complex methods such as neural networks or ensembles (model stacking, boosting or bagging). Such methods are usually described by a large number of parameters or hyper parameters - a price that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-01 Przemyslaw Biecek

The recent surge in earthquake engineering is the use of machine learning methods to develop predictive models for structural behavior. Complex black-box models are typically used for decision making to achieve high accuracy; however, as…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-05-19 Zeynep Tuna Deger , Gulsen Taskin Kaya

In a context of constant increase in competition and heightened regulatory pressure, accuracy, actuarial precision, as well as transparency and understanding of the tariff, are key issues in non-life insurance. Traditionally used…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-28 Markéta Krùpovà , Nabil Rachdi , Quentin Guibert

We introduce a new model-agnostic explanation technique which explains the prediction of any classifier called CLE. CLE gives an faithful and interpretable explanation to the prediction, by approximating the model locally using an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-03 Zijian Zhang , Fan Yang , Haofan Wang , Xia Hu

Recent achievements in deep learning (DL) have shown its potential for predicting traffic flows. Such predictions are beneficial for understanding the situation and making decisions in traffic control. However, most state-of-the-art DL…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Zezheng Feng , Yifan Jiang , Hongjun Wang , Zipei Fan , Yuxin Ma , Shuang-Hua Yang , Huamin Qu , Xuan Song

Black box models in machine learning have demonstrated excellent predictive performance in complex problems and high-dimensional settings. However, their lack of transparency and interpretability restrict the applicability of such models in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Numair Sani , Jaron Lee , Razieh Nabi , Ilya Shpitser

The vast majority of research on explainability focuses on post-explainability rather than explainable modeling. Namely, an explanation model is derived to explain a complex black box model built with the sole purpose of achieving the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-14 Gabriel Terejanu , Jawad Chowdhury , Rezaur Rashid , Asif Chowdhury

Predictive Process Analytics is becoming an essential aid for organizations, providing online operational support of their processes. However, process stakeholders need to be provided with an explanation of the reasons why a given process…

Methods for interpreting machine learning black-box models increase the outcomes' transparency and in turn generates insight into the reliability and fairness of the algorithms. However, the interpretations themselves could contain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-05 Yujia Zhang , Kuangyan Song , Yiming Sun , Sarah Tan , Madeleine Udell

Explainability is motivated by the lack of transparency of black-box Machine Learning approaches, which do not foster trust and acceptance of Machine Learning algorithms. This also happens in the Predictive Process Monitoring field, where…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Williams Rizzi , Marco Comuzzi , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Suhwan Lee , Fabrizio Maria Maggi , Alexander Nolte

The use of sophisticated machine learning models for critical decision making is faced with a challenge that these models are often applied as a "black-box". This has led to an increased interest in interpretable machine learning, where…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Catarina Moreira , Yu-Liang Chou , Mythreyi Velmurugan , Chun Ouyang , Renuka Sindhgatta , Peter Bruza

We propose Black Box Explanations through Transparent Approximations (BETA), a novel model agnostic framework for explaining the behavior of any black-box classifier by simultaneously optimizing for fidelity to the original model and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-06 Himabindu Lakkaraju , Ece Kamar , Rich Caruana , Jure Leskovec