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We propose a deep generative approach to sampling from a conditional distribution based on a unified formulation of conditional distribution and generalized nonparametric regression function using the noise-outsourcing lemma. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Xingyu Zhou , Yuling Jiao , Jin Liu , Jian Huang

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-05 Charles F. Manski

Probabilistic forecasting relies on past observations to provide a probability distribution for a future outcome, which is often evaluated against the realization using a scoring rule. Here, we perform probabilistic forecasting with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-06 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Rilwan Adewoyin , Peter Dueben , Ritabrata Dutta

Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-22 Hachem Saddiki , Andrew C. Trapp , Patrick Flaherty

Science and technology have a growing need for effective mechanisms that ensure reliable, controlled performance from black-box machine learning algorithms. These performance guarantees should ideally hold conditionally on the input-that is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Vincent Blot , Anastasios N Angelopoulos , Michael I Jordan , Nicolas J-B Brunel

While Robust Model Predictive Control considers the worst-case system uncertainty, Stochastic Model Predictive Control, using chance constraints, provides less conservative solutions by allowing a certain constraint violation probability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-17 Tim Brüdigam , Victor Gaßmann , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

To make decisions organisms often accumulate information across multiple timescales. However, most experimental and modeling studies of decision-making focus on sequences of independent trials. On the other hand, natural environments are…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-06-12 Khanh P Nguyen , Kresimir Josic , Zachary P Kilpatrick

In this paper, we deal with the data-driven selection of multidimensional and possibly anisotropic bandwidths in the general framework of kernel empirical risk minimization. We propose a universal selection rule, which leads to optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-11 Michaël Chichignoud , Sébastien Loustau

We study the problem of causal structure learning over a set of random variables when the experimenter is allowed to perform at most $M$ experiments in a non-adaptive manner. We consider the optimal learning strategy in terms of minimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-01 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

When using machine learning for imbalanced binary classification problems, it is common to subsample the majority class to create a (more) balanced training dataset. This biases the model's predictions because the model learns from data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Nathan Phelps , Daniel J. Lizotte , Douglas G. Woolford

Empirical risk minimization stands behind most optimization in supervised machine learning. Under this scheme, labeled data is used to approximate an expected cost (risk), and a learning algorithm updates model-defining parameters in search…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 James Schmidt

We consider learning from labeled data collected across multiple environments, where the data distribution may vary across these environments. This problem is commonly approached from a causal perspective, seeking invariant representations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-30 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Machine learning models trained on uncurated datasets can often end up adversely affecting inputs belonging to underrepresented groups. To address this issue, we consider the problem of adaptively constructing training sets which allow us…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Greg Fields , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Tara Javidi

We consider the following basic learning task: given independent draws from an unknown distribution over a discrete support, output an approximation of the distribution that is as accurate as possible in $\ell_1$ distance (i.e. total…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-12 Gregory Valiant , Paul Valiant

A common assumption in semi-supervised learning is that the labeled, unlabeled, and test data are drawn from the same distribution. However, this assumption is not satisfied in many applications. In many scenarios, the data is collected…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-02-25 Gholamali Aminian , Mahed Abroshan , Mohammad Mahdi Khalili , Laura Toni , Miguel R. D. Rodrigues

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Gregory F. Cooper

The fate of scientific hypotheses often relies on the ability of a computational model to explain the data, quantified in modern statistical approaches by the likelihood function. The log-likelihood is the key element for parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-27 Bas van Opheusden , Luigi Acerbi , Wei Ji Ma

Likelihood based-learning of graphical models faces challenges of computational-complexity and robustness to model mis-specification. This paper studies methods that fit parameters directly to maximize a measure of the accuracy of predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-07-04 Justin Domke

When evaluating causal influence from one time series to another in a multivariate dataset it is necessary to take into account the conditioning effect of the other variables. In the presence of many variables, and possibly of a reduced…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-03-26 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) based machine learning algorithms have suffered from weak generalization performance on data obtained from out-of-distribution (OOD). To address this problem, Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) objective was…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-25 Jun-Hyun Bae , Inchul Choi , Minho Lee