Related papers: An Interpretable and Efficient Infinite-Order Vect…

In ill-posed dynamic inverse problems expected spatial features and temporal correlation between frames can be leveraged to improve the quality of the computed solution, in particular when the available data are limited and the…

We present a windowed technique to learn parsimonious time-varying autoregressive models from multivariate timeseries. This unsupervised method uncovers interpretable spatiotemporal structure in data via non-smooth and non-convex…

We propose a sparse vector autoregressive (VAR) hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) for modeling temporal and contemporaneous (e.g. spatial) dependencies in multivariate nonstationary time series. The HSMM's generic state distribution is…

High-dimensional time series are common in many domains. Since human cognition is not optimized to work well in high-dimensional spaces, these areas could benefit from interpretable low-dimensional representations. However, most…

The object of this paper is to study the asymptotic dependence structure of the linear time series models with infinitely divisible innovations by the use of their characteristic functions. Autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models and…

Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…

We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with…

Assuming stationarity is unrealistic in many time series applications. A more realistic alternative is to allow for piecewise stationarity, where the model is allowed to change at given time points. We propose a three-stage procedure for…

Lasso-type estimators are routinely used to estimate high-dimensional time series models. The theoretical guarantees established for these estimators typically require the penalty level to be chosen in a suitable fashion often depending on…

Variational inference has had great success in scaling approximate Bayesian inference to big data by exploiting mini-batch training. To date, however, this strategy has been most applicable to models of independent data. We propose an…

We present the R-package mgm for the estimation of k-order Mixed Graphical Models (MGMs) and mixed Vector Autoregressive (mVAR) models in high-dimensional data. These are a useful extensions of graphical models for only one variable type,…

Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…

This paper proposes a wavelet-based method for analysing periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) time series. Even though Fourier analysis provides an effective method for analysing periodic time series, it requires the estimation of…

Visual autoregressive modeling, based on the next-scale prediction paradigm, exhibits notable advantages in image quality and model scalability over traditional autoregressive and diffusion models. It generates images by progressively…

Variational data assimilation estimates the dynamical system states by minimizing a cost function that fits the numerical models with the observational data. Although four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) is widely used, it…

Modelling a large collection of functional time series arises in a broad spectral of real applications. Under such a scenario, not only the number of functional variables can be diverging with, or even larger than the number of temporally…

Recent advances in video generation have been dominated by diffusion and flow-matching models, which produce high-quality results but remain computationally intensive and difficult to scale. In this work, we introduce VideoAR, the first…

We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs…

High-dimensional financial time series often exhibit complex dependence relations driven by both common market structures and latent connections among assets. To capture these characteristics, this paper proposes Factor-Driven Network…