Related papers: An Interpretable and Efficient Infinite-Order Vect…

A novel first-order moving-average model for analyzing time series observed at irregularly spaced intervals is introduced. Two definitions are presented, which are equivalent under Gaussianity. The first one relies on normally distributed…

Identifying the topology underlying a set of time series is useful for tasks such as prediction, denoising, and data completion. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model-based topologies capture dependencies among time series and are often…

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard…

We introduce a high-dimensional multiplier bootstrap for time series data based on capturing dependence through a sparsely estimated vector autoregressive model. We prove its consistency for inference on high-dimensional means under two…

This paper aims to decompose a large dimensional vector autoregessive (VAR) model into two components, the first one being generated by a small-scale VAR and the second one being a white noise sequence. Hence, a reduced number of common…

This article proposes novel estimation methods for the Matrix Autoregressive (MAR) model, specifically adaptations of the Yule-Walker equations and Burg's method, addressing limitations in existing techniques. The MAR model, by maintaining…

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive…

The literature on multivariate time series is, largely, limited to either models based on the multivariate Gaussian distribution or models specifically developed for a given application. In this paper we develop a general approach which is…

We propose a parsimonious spatiotemporal model for time series data on a spatial grid. Our model is capable of dealing with high-dimensional time series data that may be collected at hundreds of locations and capturing the spatial…

Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…

Most time-series models assume that the data come from observations that are equally spaced in time. However, this assumption does not hold in many diverse scientific fields, such as astronomy, finance, and climatology, among others. There…

Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector…

In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…

A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…

While it is widely recognised that linear (structural) VARs may fail to capture important aspects of economic time series, the use of nonlinear SVARs has to date been almost entirely confined to the modelling of stationary time series,…

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) on a seasonal-to-interdecadal time scale under the existence of unstable modes can be viewed as an optimization problem of synchronized, coupled chaotic systems. The problem is tackled…

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to…

We consider a class of vector autoregressive models with banded coefficient matrices. The setting represents a type of sparse structure for high-dimensional time series, though the implied autocovariance matrices are not banded. The…

Jointly modeling and forecasting economic and financial variables across a large set of countries has long been a significant challenge. Two primary approaches have been utilized to address this issue: the vector autoregressive model with…

While seasonality inherent to raw macroeconomic data is commonly removed by seasonal adjustment techniques before it is used for structural inference, this may distort valuable information in the data. As an alternative method to commonly…