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This paper introduces a new modeling framework for optimization under uncertainty, called Probable Event Constrained Optimization (PECO). Unlike conventional chance-constrained formulations, which only limit the probability of constraint…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-22 Qifeng Li

Unknown constraints arise in many types of expensive black-box optimization problems. Several methods have been proposed recently for performing Bayesian optimization with constraints, based on the expected improvement (EI) heuristic.…

Uncertainties from deepening penetration of renewable energy resources have posed critical challenges to the secure and reliable operations of future electric grids. Among various approaches for decision making in uncertain environments,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Xinbo Geng , Le Xie

Many real-world optimization problems involve uncertain parameters with probability distributions that can be estimated using contextual feature information. In contrast to the standard approach of first estimating the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Meng Qi , Paul Grigas , Zuo-Jun Max Shen

Uncertainties from deepening penetration of renewable energy resources have posed critical challenges to the secure and reliable operations of future electric grids. Among various approaches for decision making in uncertain environments,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Xinbo Geng , Le Xie

We propose a novel distribution-free scheme to solve optimization problems where the goal is to minimize the expected value of a cost function subject to probabilistic constraints. Unlike standard sampling-based methods, our idea consists…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-28 Francesco Cordiano , Matin Jafarian , Bart De Schutter

In this paper, we present event constraints as a new modeling paradigm that generalizes joint chance constraints from stochastic optimization to (1) enforce a constraint on the probability of satisfying a set of constraints aggregated via…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Daniel Ovalle , Stefan Mazzadi , Carl D. Laird , Ignacio E. Grossmann , Joshua L. Pulsipher

We consider the problem of analyzing the probabilistic performance of first-order methods when solving convex optimization problems drawn from an unknown distribution only accessible through samples. By combining performance estimation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-11 Jisun Park , Vinit Ranjan , Bartolomeo Stellato

We present an information-theoretic framework for solving global black-box optimization problems that also have black-box constraints. Of particular interest to us is to efficiently solve problems with decoupled constraints, in which…

We introduce PEPO (Pessimistic Ensemble based Preference Optimization), a single-step Direct Preference Optimization (DPO)-like algorithm to mitigate the well-known over-optimization issue in preference learning without requiring the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Adam Barla , Emanuele Nevali , Luca Viano , Volkan Cevher

Probabilistic programming systems enable users to encode model structure and naturally reason about uncertainties, which can be leveraged towards improved Bayesian optimization (BO) methods. Here we present a probabilistic program embedding…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-06 Alexander Lavin

We investigate a class of chance-constrained combinatorial optimization problems. Given a pre-specified risk level $\epsilon \in [0,1]$, the chance-constrained program aims to find the minimum cost selection of a vector of binary decisions…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-02 Hao-Hsiang Wu , Simge Kucukyavuz

In many operational settings, decision-makers must commit to actions before uncertainty resolves, but existing optimization tools rarely quantify how consistently a chosen decision remains optimal across plausible scenarios. This paper…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-18 Wenbin Zhou , Agni Orfanoudaki , Shixiang Zhu

Chaos is a fundamental feature of many complex dynamical systems, including weather systems and fluid turbulence. These systems are inherently difficult to predict due to their extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. Many chaotic systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-02 Andrea Goertzen , Sunbochen Tang , Navid Azizan

Probabilistic Event Calculus (PEC) is a logical framework for reasoning about actions and their effects in uncertain environments, which enables the representation of probabilistic narratives and computation of temporal projections. The PEC…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-18 Lyris Xu , Fabio Aurelio D'Asaro , Luke Dickens

The scenario-based optimization approach (`scenario approach') provides an intuitive way of approximating the solution to chance-constrained optimization programs, based on finding the optimal solution under a finite number of sampled…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Georg Schildbach , Lorenzo Fagiano , Manfred Morari

The last decade witnessed an explosion in the availability of data for operations research applications. Motivated by this growing availability, we propose a novel schema for utilizing data to design uncertainty sets for robust optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-11-25 Dimitris Bertsimas , Vishal Gupta , Nathan Kallus

We approach a class of discrete event simulation-based optimization problems using optimality in probability, an approach which yields what is termed a "champion solution". Compared to the traditional optimality in expectation, this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-01-15 Jianfeng Mao , Christos G. Cassandras

Accurate estimation of parameters is paramount in developing high-fidelity models for complex dynamical systems. Model-based optimal experiment design (OED) approaches enable systematic design of dynamic experiments to generate input-output…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-11-12 Ali Mesbah , Stefan Streif

PDE-Constrained Optimization (PDECO) problems can be accelerated significantly by employing gradient-based methods with surrogate models like neural operators compared to traditional numerical solvers. However, this approach faces two key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ze Cheng , Zhuoyu Li , Xiaoqiang Wang , Jianing Huang , Zhizhou Zhang , Zhongkai Hao , Hang Su
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