Related papers: E-backtesting
We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall (also known as…
Worst-case risk measures refer to the calculation of the largest value for risk measures when only partial information of the underlying distribution is available. For the popular risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional…
The safety validation of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Automated Driving Systems (ADS) increasingly demands efficient and reliable methods to quantify residual risk while adhering to international standards such as ISO…
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…
We discuss certain basic features of the equation-free (EF) approach to modeling and computation for complex/multiscale systems. We focus on links between the equation-free approach and tools from systems and control theory (design of…
Active learning has been studied extensively as a method for efficient data collection. Among the many approaches in literature, Expected Error Reduction (EER) (Roy and McCallum) has been shown to be an effective method for active learning:…
In this paper, we consider the nonconvex minimization problem of the value-at-risk (VaR) that arises from financial risk analysis. By considering this problem as a special linear program with linear complementarity constraints (a bilevel…
The effective sample size (ESS) measures the informational value of a probability distribution in terms of an equivalent number of study participants. The ESS plays a crucial role in estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information…
Given measurements from sensors and a set of standard forces, an optimization based approach to identify weakness in structures is introduced. The key novelty lies in letting the load and measurements to be random variables. Subsequently…
We present the Shortfall Deviation Risk (SDR), a risk measure that represents the expected loss that occurs with certain probability penalized by the dispersion of results that are worse than such an expectation. SDR combines Expected…
Risk measure forecast and model have been developed in order to not only provide better forecast but also preserve its (empirical) property especially coherent property. Whilst the widely used risk measure of Value-at-Risk (VaR) has shown…
Quantiles and expected shortfalls are commonly used risk measures in financial risk management. The two measurements are correlated while have distinguished features. In this project, our primary goal is to develop stable and practical…
In this paper, we investigate risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and the conditional tail expectation (CTE) of the extreme (maximum and minimum) and the aggregate (total) of two dependent risks. In finance, insurance and the other…
The processes of the averaged regression quantiles and of their modifications provide useful tools in the regression models when the covariates are not fully under our control. As an application we mention the probabilistic risk assessment…
This research incorporates realized volatility and overnight information into risk models, wherein the overnight return often contributes significantly to the total return volatility. Extending a semi-parametric regression model based on…
This paper studies a fixed-design residual bootstrap method for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Expected Shortfall. For a general class of volatility models the bootstrap is shown to be…
Conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) is one of the most important measures of systemic risk. It is defined as the high quantile conditional on a related variable being extreme, widely used in the field of quantitative risk management. In this…
Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…
Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…
We consider a multi-step algorithm for the computation of the historical expected shortfall such as defined by the Basel Minimum Capital Requirements for Market Risk. At each step of the algorithm, we use Monte Carlo simulations to reduce…