Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Probabilistic Solar Irradia…
Solar flares are the most explosive phenomena in the solar system and the main trigger of the events' chain that starts from Coronal Mass Ejections and leads to geomagnetic storms with possible impacts on the infrastructures at Earth.…
Photovoltaic (PV) power production increased drastically in Europe throughout the last years. About the 6% of electricity in Italy comes from PV and for an efficient management of the power grid an accurate and reliable forecasting of…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…
Due to the increasing integration of solar power into the electrical grid, forecasting short-term solar irradiance has become key for many applications, e.g.~operational planning, power purchases, reserve activation, etc. In this context,…
Accurate forecasting of solar power output is essential for efficient integration of renewable energy into the grid. In this study, an attention-based deep learning model, inspired by transformer architecture, is used for short-term solar…
For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…
Solar irradiance is the primary input for all solar energy generation systems. The amount of available solar radiation over time under the local weather conditions helps to decide the optimal location, technology and size of a solar energy…
In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of embedding temporal information for an accurate prediction of solar irradiance. We have used two sets of models for forecasting solar irradiance. The first one uses only time series data of…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…
Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation (also called total generation) is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work…
As the US rapidly moves towards cleaner energy sources, solar energy is fast becoming the pillar of its renewable energy mix. Even while solar energy is increasingly being used, its variability is a key hindrance to grid stability, storage…
The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively…
Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would…
The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…
Satellite-based solar irradiation forecasting is useful for short-term intra-day time horizons, outperforming numerical weather predictions up to 3-4 hours ahead. The main techniques for solar satellite forecast are based on sophisticated…
The increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation introduces significant uncertainty into power system operation, necessitating forecasting approaches that extend beyond deterministic point predictions. This paper proposes an…
Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world-wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather condition present at the wind farm. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy…
Due to the rise in the use of renewable energies as an alternative to traditional ones, and especially solar energy, there is increasing interest in studying how to address photovoltaic forecasting in the face of the challenge of…
Amongst all the renewable energy resources (RES), solar is the most popular form of energy source and is of particular interest for its widely integration into the power grid. However, due to the intermittent nature of solar source, it is…