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In performative prediction, predictions guide decision-making and hence can influence the distribution of future data. To date, work on performative prediction has focused on finding performatively stable models, which are the fixed points…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 John Miller , Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic

Performative prediction is a framework for learning models that influence the data they intend to predict. We focus on finding classifiers that are performatively stable, i.e. optimal for the data distribution they induce. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Gauthier Gidel

Performativity, the phenomenon where outcomes are influenced by predictions, is particularly prevalent in social contexts where individuals strategically respond to a deployed model. In order to preserve the high accuracy of machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Nikita Tsoy , Ivan Kirev , Negin Rahimiyazdi , Nikola Konstantinov

Performative learning addresses the increasingly pervasive situations in which algorithmic decisions may induce changes in the data distribution as a consequence of their public deployment. We propose a novel view in which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Edwige Cyffers , Muni Sreenivas Pydi , Jamal Atif , Olivier Cappé

In performative prediction, the choice of a model influences the distribution of future data, typically through actions taken based on the model's predictions. We initiate the study of stochastic optimization for performative prediction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-22 Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Moritz Hardt

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Moritz Hardt

In performative stochastic optimization, decisions can influence the distribution of random parameters, rendering the data-generating process itself decision-dependent. In practice, decision-makers rarely have access to the true…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-27 Zhuangzhuang Jia , Yijie Wang , Roy Dong , Grani A. Hanasusanto

Performative prediction, as introduced by Perdomo et al, is a framework for studying social prediction in which the data distribution itself changes in response to the deployment of a model. Existing work in this field usually hinges on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Yatong Chen , Wei Tang , Chien-Ju Ho , Yang Liu

In performative learning, the data distribution reacts to the deployed model - for example, because strategic users adapt their features to game it - which creates a more complex dynamic than in classical supervised learning. One should…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Edwige Cyffers , Alireza Mirrokni , Marco Mondelli

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Nam Ho-Nguyen , Fatma Kılınç-Karzan

Performative prediction is an emerging paradigm in machine learning that addresses scenarios where the model's prediction may induce a shift in the distribution of the data it aims to predict. Current works in this field often rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Guangzheng Zhong , Yang Liu , Jiming Liu

This paper studies a risk minimization problem with decision dependent data distribution. The problem pertains to the performative prediction setting in which a trained model can affect the outcome estimated by the model. Such dependency…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-07 Qiang Li , Hoi-To Wai

Predictions in the social world generally influence the target of prediction, a phenomenon known as performativity. Self-fulfilling and self-negating predictions are examples of performativity. Of fundamental importance to economics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Moritz Hardt , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

We study stochastic optimization in the context of performative shifts, where the data distribution changes in response to the deployed model. We demonstrate that naive retraining can be provably suboptimal even for simple distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Anmol Kabra , Kumar Kshitij Patel

Following the wide-spread adoption of machine learning models in real-world applications, the phenomenon of performativity, i.e. model-dependent shifts in the test distribution, becomes increasingly prevalent. Unfortunately, since models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-21 Ivan Kirev , Lyuben Baltadzhiev , Nikola Konstantinov

This paper proves, in very general settings, that convex risk minimization is a procedure to select a unique conditional probability model determined by the classification problem. Unlike most previous work, we give results that are general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Matus Telgarsky , Miroslav Dudík , Robert Schapire

Often in prediction tasks, the predictive model itself can influence the distribution of the target variable, a phenomenon termed performative prediction. Generally, this influence stems from strategic actions taken by stakeholders with a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-14 Daniele Bracale , Subha Maity , Felipe Maia Polo , Seamus Somerstep , Moulinath Banerjee , Yuekai Sun

The push-forward operation enables one to redistribute a probability measure through a deterministic map. It plays a key role in statistics and optimization: many learning problems (notably from optimal transport, generative modeling, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-19 Lucas de Lara , Mathis Deronzier , Alberto González-Sanz , Virgile Foy

Performative prediction aims to model scenarios where predictive outcomes subsequently influence the very systems they target. The pursuit of a performative optimum (PO) -- minimizing performative risk -- is generally reliant on modeling of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Songkai Xue , Yuekai Sun

Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Justin Domke
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