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Machine learning classifiers are probabilistic in nature, and thus inevitably involve uncertainty. Predicting the probability of a specific input to be correct is called uncertainty (or confidence) estimation and is crucial for risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-11 Gabriella Chouraqui , Liron Cohen , Gil Einziger , Liel Leman

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Robots such as autonomous vehicles and assistive manipulators are increasingly operating in dynamic environments and close physical proximity to people. In such scenarios, the robot can leverage a human motion predictor to predict their…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Kensuke Nakamura , Somil Bansal

This paper considers safe robot mission planning in uncertain dynamical environments. This problem arises in applications such as surveillance, emergency rescue, and autonomous driving. It is a challenging problem due to modeling and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-03-09 Yimeng Lu , Maryam Kamgarpour

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Yusuf Sale , Viktor Bengs , Michele Caprio , Eyke Hüllermeier

Uncertainty quantification is essential when deploying learning-based control methods in safety-critical systems. This is commonly realized by constructing uncertainty tubes that enclose the unknown function of interest, e.g., the reward…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-02 Abdullah Tokmak , Toni Karvonen , Thomas B. Schön , Dominik Baumann

There is a growing trend toward AI systems interacting with humans to revolutionize a range of application domains such as healthcare and transportation. However, unsafe human-machine interaction can lead to catastrophic failures. We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Shuyang Dong , Meiyi Ma , Josephine Lamp , Sebastian Elbaum , Matthew B. Dwyer , Lu Feng

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

Computer vision leveraging deep learning has achieved significant success in the last decade. Despite the promising performance of the existing deep models in the recent literature, the extent of models' reliability remains unknown.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-13 Seyed Omid Sajedi , Xiao Liang

Uncertainty quantification by ensemble learning is explored in terms of an application from computational optical form measurements. The application requires to solve a large-scale, nonlinear inverse problem. Ensemble learning is used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Lara Hoffmann , Ines Fortmeier , Clemens Elster

To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-30 Shai Feldman , Liran Ringel , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conjunction assessment requires knowledge of the uncertainty in the predicted orbit. Errors in the atmospheric density are a major source of error in the prediction of low Earth orbits. Therefore, accurate estimation of the density and…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-04-24 David J. Gondelach , Richard Linares

In [Berta 2014 Entanglement], uncertainty relations in the presence of quantum memory was formulated for mutually unbiased bases using conditional collision entropy. In this paper, we generalize their results to the mutually unbiased…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-10-03 Kun Wang , Nan Wu , Fangmin Song

In autonomous driving, accurate motion prediction is crucial for safe and efficient motion planning. To ensure safety, planners require reliable uncertainty estimates of the predicted behavior of surrounding agents, yet this aspect has…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Aron Distelzweig , Andreas Look , Eitan Kosman , Faris Janjoš , Jörg Wagner , Abhinav Valada

This paper addresses the problem of planning a safe (i.e., collision-free) trajectory from an initial state to a goal region when the obstacle space is a-priori unknown and is incrementally revealed online, e.g., through line-of-sight…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-04-17 Lucas Janson , Tommy Hu , Marco Pavone

This paper presents a motion planning and risk analysis framework for enhancing human-robot collaboration with a Multi-Rotor Aerial Vehicle. The proposed method employs Signal Temporal Logic to encode key mission objectives, including…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Giuseppe Silano , Amr Afifi , Martin Saska , Antonio Franchi

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Contact detection for continuum and soft robots has been limited in past works to statics or kinematics-based methods with assumed circular bending curvature or known bending profiles. In this paper, we adapt the generalized momentum…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-05-07 Garrison L. H. Johnston , Neel Shihora , Nabil Simaan

In many learning based control methodologies, learning the unknown dynamic model precedes the control phase, while the aim is to control the system such that it remains in some safe region of the state space. In this work, our aim is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-14 Farhad Farokhi , Alex Leong , Iman Shames , Mohammad Zamani

Verifying the correct behavior of robots in contact tasks is challenging due to model uncertainties associated with contacts. Standard methods for testing often fall short since all (uncountable many) solutions cannot be obtained. Instead,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Chencheng Tang , Matthias Althoff
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