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We introduce a regularization approach to arbitrage-free factor-model selection. The considered model selection problem seeks to learn the closest arbitrage-free HJM-type model to any prespecified factor-model. An asymptotic solution to…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-06 Anastasis Kratsios , Cody B. Hyndman

Modern data analysis depends increasingly on estimating models via flexible high-dimensional or nonparametric machine learning methods, where the identification of structural parameters is often challenging and untestable. In linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Andrii Babii , Jean-Pierre Florens

This paper studies large $N$ and large $T$ conditional quantile panel data models with interactive fixed effects. We propose a nuclear norm penalized estimator of the coefficients on the covariates and the low-rank matrix formed by the…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-03-17 Junlong Feng

In this article, we propose a penalized high dimensional semiparametric model average quantile prediction approach that is robust for forecasting the conditional quantile of the response. We consider a two-step estimation procedure. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-06 Jingwen Tu , Hu Yang , Chaohui Guo

Model regularization requires extensive manual tuning to balance complexity against overfitting. Cross-regularization resolves this tradeoff by directly adapting regularization parameters through validation gradients during training. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Carlos Stein Brito

This paper studies the estimation of characteristic-based quantile factor models where the factor loadings are unknown functions of observed individual characteristics while the idiosyncratic error terms are subject to conditional quantile…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-27 Liang Chen , Juan Jose Dolado , Jesus Gonzalo , Haozi Pan

Given an unknown dynamic system such as a coupled harmonic oscillator with $n$ springs and point masses. We are often interested in gaining insights into its physical parameters, i.e. stiffnesses and masses, by observing trajectories of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-22 Gregory Barber , Mulugeta A. Haile , Tzikang Chen

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Emmanuel J. Candès , Michael I. Jordan , Lihua Lei

In most practical applications such as recommendation systems, display advertising, and so forth, the collected data often contains missing values and those missing values are generally missing-not-at-random, which deteriorates the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-27 Mingming Ha , Xuewen Tao , Wenfang Lin , Qionxu Ma , Wujiang Xu , Linxun Chen

This paper proposes a novel graph-based regularized regression estimator - the hierarchical feature regression (HFR) -, which mobilizes insights from the domains of machine learning and graph theory to estimate robust parameters for a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-11 Johann Pfitzinger

We present a method of parameter estimation for large class of nonlinear systems, namely those in which the state consists of output derivatives and the flow is linear in the parameter. The method, which solves for the unknown parameter by…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-16 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

Model-based clustering integrated with variable selection is a powerful tool for uncovering latent structures within complex data. However, its effectiveness is often hindered by challenges such as identifying relevant variables that define…

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah

High dimensional hypothesis test deals with models in which the number of parameters is significantly larger than the sample size. Existing literature develops a variety of individual tests. Some of them are sensitive to the dense and small…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-09 Cheng Zhou , Xinsheng Zhang , Wenxin Zhou , Han Liu

In system identification, estimating parameters of a model using limited observations results in poor identifiability. To cope with this issue, we propose a new method to simultaneously select and estimate sensitive parameters as key model…

Model selection strategies have been routinely employed to determine a model for data analysis in statistics, and further study and inference then often proceed as though the selected model were the true model that were known a priori. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Priyam Mitra , Heng Lian , Ritwik Mitra , Hua Liang , Min-ge Xie

We propose a unified framework to speed up the existing stochastic matrix factorization (SMF) algorithms via variance reduction. Our framework is general and it subsumes several well-known SMF formulations in the literature. We perform a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-23 Renbo Zhao , William B. Haskell , Jiashi Feng

We present a general framework for studying regularized estimators; such estimators are pervasive in estimation problems wherein "plug-in" type estimators are either ill-defined or ill-behaved. Within this framework, we derive, under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-14 Michael Jansson , Demian Pouzo

Accurate representations of unknown and sub-grid physical processes through parameterizations (or closure) in numerical simulations with quantified uncertainty are critical for resolving the coarse-grained partial differential equations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Yongquan Qu , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Pierre Gentine

In genetical genomics studies, it is important to jointly analyze gene expression data and genetic variants in exploring their associations with complex traits, where the dimensionality of gene expressions and genetic variants can both be…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-15 Wei Lin , Rui Feng , Hongzhe Li