Related papers: About the waiting time for a strong earthquake
This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a defined circle of arbitrary radius surrounding a point of…
The acoustic emission activity associated with recent rock fracture experiments under different conditions has indicated that some features of event-event triggering are independent of the details of the experiment and the materials used…
Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…
The paper is based on the report read by the author on October 24, 2018 at the meeting of the Scientific Council of the Institute of Earth Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The report was dedicated to the 150th anniversary of the…
Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
Earthquakes are indeed triggered by fault dislocations, but whether this process alone can produce the actual earthquake energy released by the mainshock has long been questioned. Therefore, exploring the true source of energy that causes…
A new law regarding structure of the earthquake networks is found. The seismic data taken in California is mapped to a growing directed network. Then, statistics of period in the network, which implies that after how many earthquakes an…
The time dependence of the parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) magnitude distribution is computed for foreshock sequences of earthquakes, correlated with the main shock, by using the geometric-growth model of earthquake focus, the…
We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes…
Fundamentally related to the UV divergence problem in Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making the…
The inverse Omori law for foreshocks discovered in the 1970s states that the rate of earthquakes prior to a mainshock increases on average as a power law ~ 1/(t_c-t)^p' of the time to the mainshock occurring at t_c. Here, we show that this…
The time needed to exchange information in the physical world induces a delay term when the respective system is modeled by differential equations. Time delays are hence ubiquitous, being furthermore likely to induce instabilities and with…
The elementary theory of aftershocks, being relatively simple mathematically, belongs to the basics of earthquake physics. The paper briefly outlines the concepts and ideas of the theory, provides equations for the relaxation of the source…
The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…
We report on a novel stochastic analysis of seismic time series for the Earth's vertical velocity, by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems, and in particular for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations…
The identification of patterns in space, time, and magnitude, which could potentially encode the subsequent earthquake magnitude, represents a significant challenge in earthquake forecasting. A pivotal aspect of this endeavor involves the…
A characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit…
Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…
In wave propagation theories, many problems of multi-sensor systems utilize time delay in their solution in signal processing. This technique finds great utility in seismic exploration and static correction (low-velocity weathering), which…