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Interference arises when an individual's potential outcome depends on the individual treatment level, but also on the treatment level of others. A common assumption in the causal inference literature in the presence of interference is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-15 Georgia Papadogeorgou , Fabrizia Mealli , Corwin M. Zigler

One size fits all approaches to medicine have become a thing of the past as the understanding of individual differences grows. The paper introduces a test for the presence of heterogeneity in treatment effects in a clinical trial.…

In causal inference, and specifically in the \textit{Causes of Effects} problem, one is interested in how to use statistical evidence to understand causation in an individual case, and so how to assess the so-called {\em probability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-23 Fabio Corradi , Monica Musio

We address estimation of intervention effects in experimental designs in which (a) interventions are assigned at the cluster level; (b) clusters are selected to form pairs, matched on observed characteristics; and (c) intervention is…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-24 Zhenke Wu , Constantine E. Frangakis , Thomas A. Louis , Daniel O. Scharfstein

We provide guidance on multiple imputation of missing at random treatments in observational studies. Specifically, analysts should account for both covariates and outcomes, i.e., not just use propensity scores, when imputing the missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Joseph Feldman , Jerome P. Reiter

The effectiveness of personalized oncology treatments ultimately depends on whether outcomes can be causally attributed to the treatment. Advances in precision oncology have improved molecular profiling of individuals, and tailored…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-29 Lydia Jang , Stefan Konigorski

There has been considerable recent interest in estimating heterogeneous causal effects. In this paper, we study conditional average partial causal effects (CAPCE) to reveal the heterogeneity of causal effects with continuous treatment. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Yuta Kawakami , Manabu Kuroki , Jin Tian

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Heß , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Causal identification of treatment effects for infectious disease outcomes in interconnected populations is challenging because infection outcomes may be transmissible to others, and treatment given to one individual may affect others'…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Eben Kenah , Forrest W. Crawford

In settings where units' outcomes are affected by others' treatments, there has been a proliferation of ways to quantify effects of treatments on outcomes, including via indirect exposure to other units' treatments. Here we consider two…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Sahil Loomba , Dean Eckles

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is of central interest across numerous application domains. Individual treatment effect offers the most granular measure of treatment effect on an individual level, and is the most useful…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-06 Hengrui Cai , Huaqing Jin , Lexin Li

Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-09 Alexander Peysakhovich , Akos Lada

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is crucial for reliable decision-making in treatment evaluation and selection. The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is widely used to capture treatment effect heterogeneity induced by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Peng Wu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng , Yue Liu

Targeting and personalization policies can be used to improve outcomes beyond the uniform policy that assigns the best performing treatment in an A/B test to everyone. Personalization relies on the presence of heterogeneity of treatment…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-12 Anya Shchetkina

When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-01 Ernesto Ulloa-Pérez , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

We investigate how to exploit structural similarities of an individual's potential outcomes (POs) under different treatments to obtain better estimates of conditional average treatment effects in finite samples. Especially when it is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-26 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

Missing data is a systemic problem in practical scenarios that causes noise and bias when estimating treatment effects. This makes treatment effect estimation from data with missingness a particularly tricky endeavour. A key reason for this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-27 Jeroen Berrevoets , Fergus Imrie , Trent Kyono , James Jordon , Mihaela van der Schaar

Population-adjusted indirect comparisons estimate treatment effects when access to individual patient data is limited and there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers. Popular methods include matching-adjusted indirect comparison…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-05 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals has attracted growing attention as a statistical tool for performing critical decision-making. We propose a Bayesian inference framework that quantifies the uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Shunsuke Horii , Yoichi Chikahara
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