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We propose a random forest estimator for the intensity of spatial point processes, applicable with or without covariates. It retains the well-known advantages of a random forest approach, including the ability to handle a large number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 Christophe Biscio , Frédéric Lavancier

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem and introduce a novel point-process-based prediction algorithm. Spatio-temporal prediction is extensively studied in Machine Learning literature due to its critical real-life applications such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-17 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman S. Kozat

A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space. In this paper, we develop a method to infer predictive intensity intervals by learning a spatial model using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-06 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

Adaptive experiments improve efficiency by adjusting treatment assignments based on past outcomes, but this adaptivity breaks the i.i.d.\ assumptions that underpin classical asymptotics. At the same time, many questions of interest are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Houssam Zenati , Bariscan Bozkurt , Arthur Gretton

Kernel adaptive filters, a class of adaptive nonlinear time-series models, are known by their ability to learn expressive autoregressive patterns from sequential data. However, for trivial monotonic signals, they struggle to perform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-14 Felipe Tobar

A spectral mixture (SM) kernel is a flexible kernel used to model any stationary covariance function. Although it is useful in modeling data, the learning of the SM kernel is generally difficult because optimizing a large number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-15 Yohan Jung , Kyungwoo Song , Jinkyoo Park

The current work is motivated by the need for robust statistical methods for precision medicine; as such, we address the need for statistical methods that provide actionable inference for a single unit at any point in time. We aim to learn…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-02 Ivana Malenica , Aurelien Bibaut , Mark J. van der Laan

The algorithms used for the optimal management of an ambulance fleet require an accurate description of the spatio-temporal evolution of the emergency events. In the last years, several authors have proposed sophisticated statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-01 Andrea Gilardi , Riccardo Borgoni , Jorge Mateu

Feature selection procedures for spatial point processes parametric intensity estimation have been recently developed since more and more applications involve a large number of covariates. In this paper, we investigate the setting where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-29 Achmad Choiruddin , Jean-François Coeurjolly , Frédérique Letué

This paper presents a new parameter estimation algorithm for the adaptive control of a class of time-varying plants. The main feature of this algorithm is a matrix of time-varying learning rates, which enables parameter estimation error…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-18 Joseph E. Gaudio , Anuradha M. Annaswamy , Eugene Lavretsky , Michael A. Bolender

We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-13 Takafumi Kajihara , Motonobu Kanagawa , Keisuke Yamazaki , Kenji Fukumizu

Learning the dynamics of spatiotemporal events is a fundamental problem. Neural point processes enhance the expressivity of point process models with deep neural networks. However, most existing methods only consider temporal dynamics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Zihao Zhou , Xingyi Yang , Ryan Rossi , Handong Zhao , Rose Yu

In this paper, we present a statistical framework for modeling conditional quantiles of spatial processes assumed to be strongly mixing in space. We establish the $L_1$ consistency and the asymptotic normality of the kernel conditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-26 Sophie Dabo Niang , Baba Thiam

Many modern spatio-temporal data sets, in sociology, epidemiology or seismology, for example, exhibit self-exciting characteristics, triggering and clustering behaviors both at the same time, that a suitable Hawkes space-time process can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Emilia Siviero , Guillaume Staerman , Stephan Clémençon , Thomas Moreau

In biomedical studies, we are often interested in the association between different types of covariates and the times to disease events. Because the relationship between the covariates and event times is often complex, standard survival…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Hoi Min Ng , Kin Yau Wong

Estimating function inference is indispensable for many common point process models where the joint intensities are tractable while the likelihood function is not. In this paper we establish asymptotic normality of estimating function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-18 Frédéric Lavancier , Arnaud Poinas , Rasmus Waagepetersen

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-09 Zifeng Zhao , Ting Fung Ma , Wai Leong Ng , Chun Yip Yau

Under the frequency domain framework for weakly dependent functional time series, a key element is the spectral density kernel which encapsulates the second-order dynamics of the process. We propose a class of spectral density kernel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Tingyi Zhu , Dimitris N. Politis

We estimate on a compact interval densities with isolated irregularities, such as discontinuities or discontinuities in some derivatives. From independent and identically distributed observations we construct a kernel estimator with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-16 Céline Duval , Émeline Schmisser

Previous influential work showed that infinite width limits of neural networks in the lazy training regime are described by kernel machines. Here, we show that neural networks trained in the rich, feature learning infinite-width regime in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Clarissa Lauditi , Blake Bordelon , Cengiz Pehlevan