Related papers: Rail break and derailment prediction using Probabi…
A probability model exhibits instability if small changes in a data outcome result in large, and often unanticipated, changes in probability. This instability is a property of the probability model, given by a distributional form and a…
Most of today's distributed machine learning systems assume {\em reliable networks}: whenever two machines exchange information (e.g., gradients or models), the network should guarantee the delivery of the message. At the same time, recent…
Dynamic line rating (DLR) is a promising solution to increase the utilization of transmission lines by adjusting ratings based on real-time weather conditions. Accurate DLR forecast at the scheduling stage is thus necessary for system…
Loss explosions in training deep neural networks can nullify multi-million dollar training runs. Conventional monitoring metrics like weight and gradient norms are often lagging and ambiguous predictors, as their values vary dramatically…
This paper considers the problem of predicting the number of events that have occurred in the past, but which are not yet observed due to a delay. Such delayed events are relevant in predicting the future cost of warranties, pricing…
Network Diversion is a graph problem that has been extensively studied in both the network-analysis and operations-research communities as a measure of how robust a network is against adversarial disruption. This problem is especially well…
Accurately predicting when and how materials fail is critical to designing safe, reliable structures, mechanical systems, and engineered components that operate under stress. Yet, fracture behavior remains difficult to model across the…
Crack detection, length estimation, and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction are among the most studied topics in reliability engineering. Several research efforts have studied physics of failure (PoF) of different materials, along with…
The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…
The line potential energy in the cutset is used as the criterion for monitoring the generator instability, but the criterion has the following two limitations due to narrowly defined conditions. The assumption of an ideal constant power…
In route selection problems, the driver's personal preferences will determine whether she prefers a route with a travel time that has a relatively low mean and high variance over one that has relatively high mean and low variance. In…
Maintaining high standards for user safety during daily railway operations is crucial for railway managers. To aid in this endeavor, top- or side-view cameras and GPS positioning systems have facilitated progress toward automating periodic…
This paper offers a methodological contribution at the intersection of machine learning and operations research. Namely, we propose a methodology to quickly predict tactical solutions to a given operational problem. In this context, the…
This article proposes an estimation method to detect breakpoints for linear time series models with their parameters that jump scarcely. Its basic idea owes the group LASSO (group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). The method…
Transmission risk of air-borne diseases in public transportation systems is a concern. The paper proposes a modified Wells-Riley model for risk analysis in public transportation systems to capture the passenger flow characteristics,…
Data in the real world often has an evolving distribution. Thus, machine learning models trained on such data get outdated over time. This phenomenon is called model drift. Knowledge of this drift serves two purposes: (i) Retain an accurate…
Inspired by reliability issues in electric transmission networks, we use a probabilistic approach to study the occurrence of large failures in a stylized cascading failure model. In this model, lines have random capacities that initially…
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
This paper addresses a multi-period line planning problem in an integrated passenger-freight railway system, aiming to maximize profit while serving passengers and freight using a combination of dedicated passenger trains, dedicated freight…
Safety issues associated with transporting crude oil by rail have been a concern since the boom of US domestic shale oil production in 2012. During the last decade, over 300 crude oil by rail incidents have occurred in the US. Some of them…