Related papers: Boundary constraints on the large-scale ocean circ…
The results of a recent simulation with a complex global climate model suggest that the overturning component of the freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic could be used as an early-warning indicator of an AMOC…
A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the…
Climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but the magnitude is highly uncertain. Some of this uncertainty is structural, as most climate models neglect increasing…
A catastrophic collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have serious impacts on global climate. Based on eight AMOC proxies across the Atlantic basin Boers claimed to have found Early Warning Signals (EWS)…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Paleoclimate proxy records and models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can transition abruptly between a strong and a weak state. Empirical warning signals in observational fingerprints indeed suggest a…
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
The global ocean overturning circulation, critically dependent on the global density stratification, plays a central role in regulating climate evolution. While it is well-known that the global stratification profile exhibits a strong…
Declines in resilience have been observed in several climate tipping elements over the past decades, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest (AR). Large-scale nonlinear and possibly…
It is known that global climate models (GCMs) have substantial biases in the surface freshwater flux which forces the ocean component of these models. Using numerical bifurcation analyses on a global ocean model, we study here the effect of…
The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations…
Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…
The coupled nature of the ocean-atmosphere system frequently makes understanding the direction of causality difficult in ocean-atmosphere interactions. This study presents a method to decompose turbulent heat fluxes into a component which…
All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…
Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…
We investigate the influences of the outer boundary conditions(OBCs) on the structure of an optically thin accretion flow. We find that OBC plays an important role in determining the topological structure and the profiles of the surface…
Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…