Related papers: A simple and intuitive method to calculate $R_0$ i…
The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
We derive an analytical expression for the critical infection rate r_c of the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) disease spreading model on random networks. To obtain r_c, we first calculate the probability of reinfection, pi, defined…
In epidemiological modelings, the spectral radius of the next generation matrix evaluated at the trivial equilibrium was considered as the basic reproduction number. Also, the global stability of the trivial equilibrium point was determined…
A reaction-diffusion model is investigated to understand infective environments in a man-environment-man epidemic model. The free boundary is introduced to describe the expanding front of an infective environment induced by fecally-orally…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying the effects of interventions during infectious disease…
Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading…
In times of outbreaks, an essential requirement for better monitoring is the evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected individuals. An accurate estimate of this fraction is crucial for the assessment of the situation and the…
Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…
Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…
In many cases, tainted information in a computer network can spread in a way similar to an epidemics in the human world. On the other had, information processing paths are often redundant, so a single infection occurrence can be easily…
We consider a family of periodic SEIRS epidemic models with a fairly general incidence rate and it is shown the basic reproduction number determines the global dynamics of the models and it is a threshold parameter for persistence.…
In this work, we introduce a quantum-inspired epidemic model to study the dynamics of an infectious disease in a population divided into compartments. By treating the healthy population as a large reservoir, we construct a framework based…
Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple models have been in use for projection of epidemic trajectories for more than a century.…
We argue that the time from the onset of infectiousness to infectious contact, which we call the contact interval, is a better basis for inference in epidemic data than the generation or serial interval. Since contact intervals can be…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
What role do asymptomatically infected individuals play in the transmission dynamics? There are many diseases, such as norovirus and influenza, where some infected hosts show symptoms of the disease while others are asymptomatically…
The Risk Ratio (RR) is the ratio of the outcome among the exposed to risk of the outcome among the unexposed. This is a simple concept, which makes one wonder why it has not gained the same popularity as the odds ratio. Using logistic…