Related papers: Fast emulation of density functional theory simula…

In many real-world applications we are interested in approximating costly functions that are analytically unknown, e.g. complex computer codes. An emulator provides a fast approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of…

Scalable surrogate models enable efficient emulation of computer models (or simulators), particularly when dealing with large ensembles of runs. While Gaussian process (GP) models are commonly employed for emulation, they face limitations…

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) provide a rich class of models that can better represent functions with varying regimes or sharp changes, compared to conventional GPs. In this work, we propose a novel inference method for DGPs for computer…

Mathematical models implemented on a computer have become the driving force behind the acceleration of the cycle of scientific processes. This is because computer models are typically much faster and economical to run than physical…

The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models…

Gaussian process (GP) emulators have become essential tools for approximating complex simulators, significantly reducing computational demands in optimization, sensitivity analysis, and model calibration. While traditional GP emulators…

A Gaussian process (GP)-based methodology is proposed to emulate complex dynamical computer models (or simulators). The method relies on emulating the numerical flow map of the system over an initial (short) time step, where the flow map is…

Computer models are used as a way to explore complex physical systems. Stationary Gaussian process emulators, with their accompanying uncertainty quantification, are popular surrogates for computer models. However, many computer models are…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can be used for model fitting when the likelihood function is intractable but simulating from the model is feasible. However, even a single evaluation of a complex model may take several hours,…

Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used to emulate propagation uncertainty in computer experiments. GP emulation sits comfortably within an analytically tractable Bayesian framework. Apart from propagating uncertainty of the input…

With advances in scientific computing and mathematical modeling, complex scientific phenomena such as galaxy formations and rocket propulsion can now be reliably simulated. Such simulations can however be very time-intensive, requiring…

Gaussian process modeling is a standard tool for building emulators for computer experiments, which are usually used to study deterministic functions, for example, a solution to a given system of partial differential equations. This work…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a highly flexible, nonparametric statistical model that are commonly used to fit nonlinear relationships or account for correlation between observations. However, the computational load of fitting a Gaussian…

We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we…

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful probabilistic modeling technique with built-in uncertainty quantification. When one has access to multiple correlated simulations (tasks), it is common to fit a multitask GP (MTGP) surrogate…

Due to their flexibility, Gaussian processes (GPs) have been widely used in nonparametric function estimation. A prior information about the underlying function is often available. For instance, the physical system (computer model output)…

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs,…

Gaussian Process (GP) emulators are widely used to approximate complex computer model behaviour across the input space. Motivated by the problem of coupling computer models, recently progress has been made in the theory of the analysis of…