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The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a single causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Christian Toth , Christian Knoll , Franz Pernkopf , Robert Peharz

Graph-structured data are central to many scientific and industrial applications where the goal is to optimize expensive black-box objectives defined over graph structures or node configurations -- as seen in molecular design, supply…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-22 Yilin Xie , Shiqiang Zhang , Jixiang Qing , Ruth Misener , Calvin Tsay

In strategic classification, an institution (e.g., a bank) anticipates adaptation from users who change their features to increase utility in a classification task (e.g., loan repayment). Since a key challenge is the distribution shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Antonio Gois , Sophia Gunluk , Nir Rosenfeld , Nidhi Hegde , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Dhanya Sridhar

We study the causal bandit problem when the causal graph is unknown and develop an efficient algorithm for finding the parent node of the reward node using atomic interventions. We derive the exact equation for the expected number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-09 Mikhail Konobeev , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Boolean functions and networks are commonly used in the modeling and analysis of complex biological systems, and this paradigm is highly relevant in other important areas in data science and decision making, such as in the medical field and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-02 Jie Sun , Abd AlRahman AlMomani , Erik Bollt

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

We study the problem of observational causal inference with continuous treatments in the framework of inverse propensity-score weighting. To obtain stable weights, we design a new algorithm based on entropy balancing that learns weights to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Mohammad Taha Bahadori , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , David E. Heckerman

We study the derivative-free global optimization algorithm Consensus-Based Optimization (CBO), establishing uniform-in-time propagation of chaos as well as an almost uniform-in-time stability result for the microscopic particle system.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Nicolai Gerber , Franca Hoffmann , Dohyeon Kim , Urbain Vaes

The cross entropy (CE) method is a model based search method to solve optimization problems where the objective function has minimal structure. The Monte-Carlo version of the CE method employs the naive sample averaging technique which is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-01 Ajin George Joseph , Shalabh Bhatnagar

Diabetes, a pervasive and enduring health challenge, imposes significant global implications on health, financial healthcare systems, and societal well-being. This study undertakes a comprehensive exploration of various structural learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Sheresh Zahoor , Anthony C. Constantinou , Tim M Curtis , Mohammed Hasanuzzaman

A Random Graph is a random object which take its values in the space of graphs. We take advantage of the expressibility of graphs in order to model the uncertainty about the existence of causal relationships within a given set of variables.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Mauricio Gonzalez-Soto , Ivan R. Feliciano-Avelino , L. Enrique Sucar , Hugo J. Escalante Balderas

Contextual Bayesian Optimization (CBO) efficiently optimizes black-box functions with respect to design variables, while simultaneously integrating contextual information regarding the environment, such as experimental conditions. However,…

The class of problems in causal inference which seeks to isolate causal correlations solely from observational data even without interventions has come to the forefront of machine learning, neuroscience and social sciences. As new large…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2022-01-02 Mohammad Ali Javidian , Vaneet Aggarwal , Fanglin Bao , Zubin Jacob

Recent developments enable the quantification of causal control given a structural causal model (SCM). This has been accomplished by introducing quantities which encode changes in the entropy of one variable when intervening on another.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Francisco N. F. Q. Simoes , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

Inferring the causal structure of a system typically requires interventional data, rather than just observational data. Since interventional experiments can be costly, it is preferable to select interventions that yield the maximum amount…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-30 Michele Zemplenyi , Jeffrey W. Miller

We study the problem of learning 'good' interventions in a stochastic environment modeled by its underlying causal graph. Good interventions refer to interventions that maximize rewards. Specifically, we consider the setting of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Fateme Jamshidi , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Large language models (LLMs) trained with reinforcement objectives often achieve superficially correct answers via shortcut strategies, pairing correct outputs with spurious or unfaithful reasoning and degrading under small causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Xiangqi Wang , Yue Huang , Yujun Zhou , Xiaonan Luo , Kehan Guo , Xiangliang Zhang

It is evidence that representation learning can improve model's performance over multiple downstream tasks in many real-world scenarios, such as image classification and recommender systems. Existing learning approaches rely on establishing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-18 Mengyue Yang , Xinyu Cai , Furui Liu , Xu Chen , Zhitang Chen , Jianye Hao , Jun Wang

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Senrong Xu , Tianyu Wang , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Multi-Source Bayesian Optimization (MSBO) serves as a variant of the traditional Bayesian Optimization (BO) framework applicable to situations involving optimization of an objective black-box function over multiple information sources such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Luuk Jacobs , Mohammad Ali Javidian