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Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Lucas de Lara

Modern deep learning models excel at pattern recognition but remain fundamentally limited by their reliance on spurious correlations, leading to poor generalization and a demand for massive datasets. We argue that a key ingredient for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Mohamed Zayaan S

We present two new classes of causal models of decision-making agents. Our approach is motivated by the needs of modeling the economics of computing systems. These systems are composed of subsystems and can exhibit endogenous limits on…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Sebastian Benthall , Alan Lujan

Current clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) typically base their predictions on correlation, not causation. In recent years, causal machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising way to improve decision-making with CDSSs by offering…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Domenique Zipperling , Lukas Schmidt , Benedikt Hahn , Niklas Kühl , Steven Kimbrough

We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Pedro Sanchez , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

Causal deep learning (CDL) is a new and important research area in the larger field of machine learning. With CDL, researchers aim to structure and encode causal knowledge in the extremely flexible representation space of deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-05 Jeroen Berrevoets , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Tian Xia , Miguel Monteiro , Nick Pawlowski , Ben Glocker

Learning-based signal processing systems increasingly support high-stakes medical decisions using heterogeneous biomedical signals, including medical images, physiological time series, and clinical records. Despite strong predictive…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-02 Surajit Das , Maxine Tan

Three distinct phenomena complicate statistical causal analysis: latent common causes, causal cycles, and latent selection. Foundational works on Structural Causal Models (SCMs), e.g., Bongers et al. (2021, Ann. Stat., 49(5): 2885-2915),…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-23 Leihao Chen , Onno Zoeter , Joris M. Mooij

Designing implants for large and complex cranial defects is a challenging task, even for professional designers. Current efforts on automating the design process focused mainly on convolutional neural networks (CNN), which have produced…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-13 Jianning Li , David G. Ellis , Antonio Pepe , Christina Gsaxner , Michele R. Aizenberg , Jens Kleesiek , Jan Egger

We introduce structural causal bottleneck models (SCBMs), a novel class of structural causal models. At the core of SCBMs lies the assumption that causal effects between high-dimensional variables only depend on low-dimensional summary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-17 Simon Bing , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

To perform counterfactual reasoning in Structural Causal Models (SCMs), one needs to know the causal mechanisms, which provide factorizations of conditional distributions into noise sources and deterministic functions mapping realizations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Guy Lorberbom , Daniel D. Johnson , Chris J. Maddison , Daniel Tarlow , Tamir Hazan

It has been stated that the notion of cause and effect is one object of study that sciences and engineering revolve around. Lately, in software engineering, diagrammatic causal inference methods (e.g., Pearl s model) have gained popularity…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-10-18 Sabah Al-Fedaghi

Information geometry has offered a way to formally study the efficacy of scientific models by quantifying the impact of model parameters on the predicted effects. However, there has been little formal investigation of causation in this…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-01-12 Pavel Chvykov , Erik Hoel

The capability of imagining internally with a mental model of the world is vitally important for human cognition. If a machine intelligent agent can learn a world model to create a "dream" environment, it can then internally ask what-if…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Minne Li , Mengyue Yang , Furui Liu , Xu Chen , Zhitang Chen , Jun Wang

In explanatory interactive learning (XIL) the user queries the learner, then the learner explains its answer to the user and finally the loop repeats. XIL is attractive for two reasons, (1) the learner becomes better and (2) the user's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-27 Matej Zečević , Devendra Singh Dhami , Constantin A. Rothkopf , Kristian Kersting

Reasoning, a crucial aspect of NLP research, has not been adequately addressed by prevailing models including Large Language Model. Conversation reasoning, as a critical component of it, remains largely unexplored due to the absence of a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Hang Chen , Bingyu Liao , Jing Luo , Wenjing Zhu , Xinyu Yang

Causal discovery aims to extract qualitative causal knowledge in the form of causal graphs from data. Because causal ground truth is rarely known in the real world, simulated data plays a vital role in evaluating the performance of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Rebecca J. Herman , Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Causal Inference offers a fundamental approach for advancing empirical software engineering (ESE) beyond traditional statistical association, enabling researchers to rigorously identify and quantify causal relationships in software…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Daniel Rodriguez-Cardenas , Aya Garryyeva , David Nader Palacio , Antonio Mastropaolo , Denys Poshyvanyk

Medical image segmentation plays a vital role in clinical decision-making, enabling precise localization of lesions and guiding interventions. Despite significant advances in segmentation accuracy, the black-box nature of most deep models…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Limai Jiang , Ruitao Xie , Bokai Yang , Huazhen Huang , Juan He , Yufu Huo , Zikai Wang , Yang Wei , Yunpeng Cai