Related papers: Cardinality-Regularized Hawkes-Granger Model
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous…
We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…
Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of…
We propose a stochastic variance reduced optimization algorithm for solving sparse learning problems with cardinality constraints. Sufficient conditions are provided, under which the proposed algorithm enjoys strong linear convergence…
Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…
We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the…
Industrial processes generate vast amounts of time series data, yet extracting meaningful relationships and insights remains challenging. This paper introduces a framework for automated knowledge graph learning from time series data,…
In this paper, we develop a randomized algorithm and theory for learning a sparse model from large-scale and high-dimensional data, which is usually formulated as an empirical risk minimization problem with a sparsity-inducing regularizer.…
The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…
Causality in time series can be challenging to determine, especially in the presence of non-linear dependencies. Granger causality helps analyze potential relationships between variables, thereby offering a method to determine whether one…
We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…
In the machine learning era, sparsity continues to attract significant interest due to the benefits it provides to learning models. Algorithms aiming to optimise the \(\ell_0\)- and \(\ell_1\)-norm are the common choices to achieve…
Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…
When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…
Hawkes (1971) introduced a powerful multivariate point process model of mutually exciting processes to explain causal structure in data. In this paper it is shown that the Granger causality structure of such processes is fully encoded in…
Kernel-based methods are used in the context of Granger Causality to enable the identification of nonlinear causal relationships between time series variables. In this paper, we show that two state of the art kernel-based Granger Causality…
In this paper, we consider a class of sparse regression problems, whose objective function is the summation of a convex loss function and a cardinality penalty. By constructing a smoothing function for the cardinality function, we propose a…
We present a hybrid constraint-based/Bayesian algorithm for learning causal networks in the presence of sparse data. The algorithm searches the space of equivalence classes of models (essential graphs) using a heuristic based on…
The theory of Bayesian learning incorporates the use of Student-t Processes to model heavy-tailed distributions and datasets with outliers. However, despite Student-t Processes having a similar computational complexity as Gaussian…
Inferring causal relationships in observational time series data is an important task when interventions cannot be performed. Granger causality is a popular framework to infer potential causal mechanisms between different time series. The…