Related papers: Age-stratified epidemic model using a latent marke…
Understanding the spread of COVID-19 has been the subject of numerous studies, highlighting the significance of reliable epidemic models. Here, we introduce a novel epidemic model using a latent Hawkes process with temporal covariates for…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
When surveillance data of infectious disease incidence (e.g. weekly case counts) are disaggregated by demographic indicators, disparities in long-run health outcomes between these groups become apparent. Accurate identification of high-risk…
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific…
Sequences of events including infectious disease outbreaks, social network activities, and crimes are ubiquitous and the data on such events carry essential information about the underlying diffusion processes between communities (e.g.,…
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…
In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…
Epidemiological forecasts are beset by uncertainties about the underlying epidemiological processes, and the surveillance process through which data are acquired. We present a Bayesian inference methodology that quantifies these…
This paper focuses on a class of linear Hawkes processes with general immigrants. These are counting processes with shot noise intensity, including self-excited and externally excited patterns. For such processes, we introduce the concept…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
Understanding age-group dynamics of infectious diseases is a fundamental issue for both scientific study and policymaking. Age-structure epidemic models were developed in order to study and improve our understanding of these dynamics. By…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
This paper proposes a sequential ensemble methodology for epidemic modeling that integrates discrete-time Hawkes processes (DTHP) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models. Motivated by the need for accurate and reliable…
Many networks have event-driven dynamics (such as communication, social media and criminal networks), where the mean rate of the events occurring at a node in the network changes according to the occurrence of other events in the network.…
We study discrete panel data methods where unobserved heterogeneity is revealed in a first step, in environments where population heterogeneity is not discrete. We focus on two-step grouped fixed-effects (GFE) estimators, where individuals…
When modeling the dynamics of infectious disease, the incorporation of contact network information allows for the capture of the non-randomness and heterogeneity of realistic contact patterns. Oftentimes, it is assumed that the underlying…
Dyadic Data Prediction (DDP) is an important problem in many research areas. This paper develops a novel fully Bayesian nonparametric framework which integrates two popular and complementary approaches, discrete mixed membership modeling…
In this paper, we use a linear birth and death process with immigration to model infectious disease propagation when contamination stems from both person-to-person contact and contact with the environment. Our aim is to estimate the…
The modeling of the spreading of communicable diseases has experienced significant advances in the last two decades or so. This has been possible due to the proliferation of data and the development of new methods to gather, mine and…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…